1 Data preparation

1.1 Outline

  • Load scripts: loads libraries and useful scripts used in the analyses; all .R files contained in scripts at the root of the factory are automatically loaded

  • Load data: imports datasets, and may contain some ad hoc changes to the data such as specific data cleaning (not used in other reports), new variables used in the analyses, etc.

1.2 Load packages


library(reportfactory)
library(here)
library(rio) 
library(tidyverse)
library(incidence)
library(distcrete)
library(epitrix)
library(earlyR)
library(projections)
library(linelist)
library(remotes)
library(janitor)
library(kableExtra)
library(DT)
library(cyphr)
library(chngpt)
library(lubridate)
library(ggpubr)
library(ggnewscale)

1.3 Load scripts

These scripts will load:

  • all scripts stored as .R files inside /scripts/
  • all scripts stored as .R files inside /src/

These scripts also contain routines to access the latest clean encrypted data (see next section).


reportfactory::rfh_load_scripts()

1.4 Load clean data

We import the latest NHS pathways data:


x <- import_pathways() %>%
  as_tibble()
x
## # A tibble: 415,748 x 11
##    site_type date       sex   age   ccg_code ccg_name count postcode nhs_region
##    <chr>     <date>     <chr> <chr> <chr>    <chr>    <int> <chr>    <chr>     
##  1 111       2020-03-18 fema… miss… e380000… nhs_glo…     1 gl34fe   South West
##  2 111       2020-03-18 fema… miss… e380001… nhs_sou…     1 ne325nn  North Eas…
##  3 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_air…     8 bd57jr   North Eas…
##  4 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_ash…     7 tn254ab  South East
##  5 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…    35 rm13ae   London    
##  6 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…     9 n111np   London    
##  7 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…    11 s752py   North Eas…
##  8 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bas…    19 ss143hg  East of E…
##  9 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bas…     6 dn227xf  North Eas…
## 10 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bat…     9 ba25rp   South West
## # … with 415,738 more rows, and 2 more variables: day <int>, weekday <fct>

We also import demographics data for NHS regions in England, used later in our analysis:


path <- here::here("data", "csv", "nhs_region_population_2018.csv")
nhs_region_pop <- rio::import(path) %>%
  mutate(nhs_region = str_to_title(gsub("_"," ",nhs_region)))

nhs_region_pop$nhs_region <- gsub(" Of ", " of ", nhs_region_pop$nhs_region)
nhs_region_pop$nhs_region <- gsub(" And ", " and ", nhs_region_pop$nhs_region)
nhs_region_pop
##                  nhs_region variable      value
## 1                North West     0-18 0.22538599
## 2  North East and Yorkshire     0-18 0.21876449
## 3                  Midlands     0-18 0.22564656
## 4           East of England     0-18 0.22810783
## 5                    London     0-18 0.23764782
## 6                South East     0-18 0.22458811
## 7                South West     0-18 0.20799797
## 8                North West    19-69 0.64274078
## 9  North East and Yorkshire    19-69 0.64437753
## 10                 Midlands    19-69 0.63876675
## 11          East of England    19-69 0.63034229
## 12                   London    19-69 0.67820084
## 13               South East    19-69 0.63267336
## 14               South West    19-69 0.63176131
## 15               North West   70-120 0.13187323
## 16 North East and Yorkshire   70-120 0.13685797
## 17                 Midlands   70-120 0.13558669
## 18          East of England   70-120 0.14154988
## 19                   London   70-120 0.08415135
## 20               South East   70-120 0.14273853
## 21               South West   70-120 0.16024072

Finally, we import publically available deaths per NHS region:


dth <- import_deaths() %>%
  mutate(nhs_region = str_to_title(gsub("_"," ",nhs_region)))

#truncation to account for reporting delay
delay_max <- 21

dth$nhs_region <- gsub(" Of ", " of ", dth$nhs_region)
dth$nhs_region <- gsub(" And ", " and ", dth$nhs_region)
dth
##      date_report               nhs_region deaths
## 1     2020-03-01          East of England      0
## 2     2020-03-02          East of England      1
## 3     2020-03-03          East of England      0
## 4     2020-03-04          East of England      0
## 5     2020-03-05          East of England      0
## 6     2020-03-06          East of England      1
## 7     2020-03-07          East of England      0
## 8     2020-03-08          East of England      0
## 9     2020-03-09          East of England      1
## 10    2020-03-10          East of England      0
## 11    2020-03-11          East of England      0
## 12    2020-03-12          East of England      0
## 13    2020-03-13          East of England      1
## 14    2020-03-14          East of England      2
## 15    2020-03-15          East of England      2
## 16    2020-03-16          East of England      1
## 17    2020-03-17          East of England      1
## 18    2020-03-18          East of England      5
## 19    2020-03-19          East of England      4
## 20    2020-03-20          East of England      2
## 21    2020-03-21          East of England     11
## 22    2020-03-22          East of England     12
## 23    2020-03-23          East of England     11
## 24    2020-03-24          East of England     19
## 25    2020-03-25          East of England     26
## 26    2020-03-26          East of England     36
## 27    2020-03-27          East of England     38
## 28    2020-03-28          East of England     28
## 29    2020-03-29          East of England     43
## 30    2020-03-30          East of England     45
## 31    2020-03-31          East of England     70
## 32    2020-04-01          East of England     62
## 33    2020-04-02          East of England     65
## 34    2020-04-03          East of England     80
## 35    2020-04-04          East of England     71
## 36    2020-04-05          East of England     76
## 37    2020-04-06          East of England     71
## 38    2020-04-07          East of England     93
## 39    2020-04-08          East of England    111
## 40    2020-04-09          East of England     87
## 41    2020-04-10          East of England     74
## 42    2020-04-11          East of England     92
## 43    2020-04-12          East of England    100
## 44    2020-04-13          East of England     78
## 45    2020-04-14          East of England     61
## 46    2020-04-15          East of England     82
## 47    2020-04-16          East of England     74
## 48    2020-04-17          East of England     86
## 49    2020-04-18          East of England     64
## 50    2020-04-19          East of England     67
## 51    2020-04-20          East of England     67
## 52    2020-04-21          East of England     75
## 53    2020-04-22          East of England     67
## 54    2020-04-23          East of England     49
## 55    2020-04-24          East of England     66
## 56    2020-04-25          East of England     54
## 57    2020-04-26          East of England     48
## 58    2020-04-27          East of England     46
## 59    2020-04-28          East of England     58
## 60    2020-04-29          East of England     32
## 61    2020-04-30          East of England     45
## 62    2020-05-01          East of England     49
## 63    2020-05-02          East of England     29
## 64    2020-05-03          East of England     41
## 65    2020-05-04          East of England     19
## 66    2020-05-05          East of England     36
## 67    2020-05-06          East of England     31
## 68    2020-05-07          East of England     33
## 69    2020-05-08          East of England     33
## 70    2020-05-09          East of England     29
## 71    2020-05-10          East of England     22
## 72    2020-05-11          East of England     18
## 73    2020-05-12          East of England     21
## 74    2020-05-13          East of England     27
## 75    2020-05-14          East of England     26
## 76    2020-05-15          East of England     19
## 77    2020-05-16          East of England     26
## 78    2020-05-17          East of England     17
## 79    2020-05-18          East of England     25
## 80    2020-05-19          East of England     15
## 81    2020-05-20          East of England     26
## 82    2020-05-21          East of England     21
## 83    2020-05-22          East of England     13
## 84    2020-05-23          East of England     12
## 85    2020-05-24          East of England     17
## 86    2020-05-25          East of England     25
## 87    2020-05-26          East of England     14
## 88    2020-05-27          East of England     12
## 89    2020-05-28          East of England     17
## 90    2020-05-29          East of England     16
## 91    2020-05-30          East of England      9
## 92    2020-05-31          East of England      8
## 93    2020-06-01          East of England     17
## 94    2020-06-02          East of England     14
## 95    2020-06-03          East of England     10
## 96    2020-06-04          East of England      7
## 97    2020-06-05          East of England     14
## 98    2020-06-06          East of England      5
## 99    2020-06-07          East of England      9
## 100   2020-06-08          East of England      7
## 101   2020-06-09          East of England      6
## 102   2020-06-10          East of England      8
## 103   2020-06-11          East of England      1
## 104   2020-06-12          East of England      9
## 105   2020-06-13          East of England      5
## 106   2020-06-14          East of England      4
## 107   2020-06-15          East of England      8
## 108   2020-06-16          East of England      3
## 109   2020-06-17          East of England      7
## 110   2020-06-18          East of England      4
## 111   2020-06-19          East of England      7
## 112   2020-06-20          East of England      4
## 113   2020-06-21          East of England      3
## 114   2020-06-22          East of England      6
## 115   2020-06-23          East of England      5
## 116   2020-06-24          East of England      4
## 117   2020-06-25          East of England      1
## 118   2020-06-26          East of England      5
## 119   2020-06-27          East of England      6
## 120   2020-06-28          East of England      8
## 121   2020-06-29          East of England      4
## 122   2020-06-30          East of England      5
## 123   2020-07-01          East of England      2
## 124   2020-07-02          East of England      5
## 125   2020-07-03          East of England      0
## 126   2020-07-04          East of England      3
## 127   2020-07-05          East of England      1
## 128   2020-07-06          East of England      2
## 129   2020-07-07          East of England      2
## 130   2020-07-08          East of England      0
## 131   2020-07-09          East of England      8
## 132   2020-07-10          East of England      4
## 133   2020-07-11          East of England      2
## 134   2020-07-12          East of England      1
## 135   2020-07-13          East of England      8
## 136   2020-07-14          East of England      2
## 137   2020-07-15          East of England      0
## 138   2020-07-16          East of England      0
## 139   2020-07-17          East of England      0
## 140   2020-07-18          East of England      0
## 141   2020-07-19          East of England      1
## 142   2020-07-20          East of England      1
## 143   2020-07-21          East of England      1
## 144   2020-07-22          East of England      2
## 145   2020-07-23          East of England      1
## 146   2020-07-24          East of England      1
## 147   2020-07-25          East of England      0
## 148   2020-07-26          East of England      1
## 149   2020-07-27          East of England      1
## 150   2020-07-28          East of England      2
## 151   2020-07-29          East of England      0
## 152   2020-07-30          East of England      0
## 153   2020-07-31          East of England      1
## 154   2020-08-01          East of England      0
## 155   2020-08-02          East of England      0
## 156   2020-08-03          East of England      0
## 157   2020-08-04          East of England      1
## 158   2020-08-05          East of England      1
## 159   2020-08-06          East of England      0
## 160   2020-08-07          East of England      1
## 161   2020-08-08          East of England      0
## 162   2020-08-09          East of England      0
## 163   2020-08-10          East of England      1
## 164   2020-08-11          East of England      2
## 165   2020-08-12          East of England      1
## 166   2020-08-13          East of England      0
## 167   2020-08-14          East of England      1
## 168   2020-08-15          East of England      1
## 169   2020-08-16          East of England      0
## 170   2020-08-17          East of England      0
## 171   2020-08-18          East of England      2
## 172   2020-08-19          East of England      1
## 173   2020-08-20          East of England      1
## 174   2020-08-21          East of England      0
## 175   2020-08-22          East of England      1
## 176   2020-08-23          East of England      1
## 177   2020-08-24          East of England      0
## 178   2020-08-25          East of England      0
## 179   2020-08-26          East of England      1
## 180   2020-08-27          East of England      1
## 181   2020-08-28          East of England      0
## 182   2020-08-29          East of England      0
## 183   2020-08-30          East of England      0
## 184   2020-08-31          East of England      0
## 185   2020-09-01          East of England      0
## 186   2020-09-02          East of England      0
## 187   2020-09-03          East of England      1
## 188   2020-09-04          East of England      1
## 189   2020-09-05          East of England      0
## 190   2020-09-06          East of England      1
## 191   2020-09-07          East of England      0
## 192   2020-09-08          East of England      0
## 193   2020-09-09          East of England      0
## 194   2020-09-10          East of England      0
## 195   2020-09-11          East of England      0
## 196   2020-09-12          East of England      0
## 197   2020-09-13          East of England      1
## 198   2020-09-14          East of England      1
## 199   2020-09-15          East of England      0
## 200   2020-09-16          East of England      0
## 201   2020-09-17          East of England      0
## 202   2020-09-18          East of England      0
## 203   2020-09-19          East of England      0
## 204   2020-09-20          East of England      2
## 205   2020-09-21          East of England      0
## 206   2020-09-22          East of England      2
## 207   2020-09-23          East of England      1
## 208   2020-09-24          East of England      0
## 209   2020-09-25          East of England      1
## 210   2020-09-26          East of England      1
## 211   2020-09-27          East of England      1
## 212   2020-09-28          East of England      2
## 213   2020-09-29          East of England      2
## 214   2020-09-30          East of England      2
## 215   2020-10-01          East of England      2
## 216   2020-10-02          East of England      1
## 217   2020-10-03          East of England      1
## 218   2020-10-04          East of England      0
## 219   2020-10-05          East of England      0
## 220   2020-10-06          East of England      4
## 221   2020-10-07          East of England      6
## 222   2020-10-08          East of England      3
## 223   2020-10-09          East of England      1
## 224   2020-10-10          East of England      6
## 225   2020-10-11          East of England      2
## 226   2020-10-12          East of England      2
## 227   2020-10-13          East of England      1
## 228   2020-10-14          East of England      3
## 229   2020-10-15          East of England      4
## 230   2020-10-16          East of England      5
## 231   2020-10-17          East of England      6
## 232   2020-10-18          East of England      7
## 233   2020-10-19          East of England      5
## 234   2020-10-20          East of England      9
## 235   2020-10-21          East of England      7
## 236   2020-10-22          East of England      7
## 237   2020-10-23          East of England     14
## 238   2020-10-24          East of England      1
## 239   2020-10-25          East of England     10
## 240   2020-10-26          East of England     10
## 241   2020-10-27          East of England      8
## 242   2020-10-28          East of England     12
## 243   2020-10-29          East of England     10
## 244   2020-10-30          East of England     12
## 245   2020-10-31          East of England     15
## 246   2020-11-01          East of England     14
## 247   2020-11-02          East of England      9
## 248   2020-11-03          East of England     14
## 249   2020-11-04          East of England     11
## 250   2020-11-05          East of England     12
## 251   2020-11-06          East of England     18
## 252   2020-11-07          East of England     10
## 253   2020-11-08          East of England     13
## 254   2020-11-09          East of England     16
## 255   2020-11-10          East of England     26
## 256   2020-11-11          East of England     14
## 257   2020-11-12          East of England     14
## 258   2020-11-13          East of England     21
## 259   2020-11-14          East of England     19
## 260   2020-11-15          East of England     13
## 261   2020-11-16          East of England     11
## 262   2020-11-17          East of England     17
## 263   2020-11-18          East of England     19
## 264   2020-11-19          East of England     23
## 265   2020-11-20          East of England     24
## 266   2020-11-21          East of England     19
## 267   2020-11-22          East of England     21
## 268   2020-11-23          East of England     18
## 269   2020-11-24          East of England     21
## 270   2020-11-25          East of England     19
## 271   2020-11-26          East of England     19
## 272   2020-11-27          East of England     14
## 273   2020-11-28          East of England     28
## 274   2020-11-29          East of England     19
## 275   2020-11-30          East of England     22
## 276   2020-12-01          East of England     25
## 277   2020-12-02          East of England     18
## 278   2020-12-03          East of England     23
## 279   2020-12-04          East of England     24
## 280   2020-12-05          East of England     25
## 281   2020-12-06          East of England     21
## 282   2020-12-07          East of England     16
## 283   2020-12-08          East of England     26
## 284   2020-12-09          East of England     19
## 285   2020-12-10          East of England     32
## 286   2020-12-11          East of England     32
## 287   2020-12-12          East of England     27
## 288   2020-12-13          East of England     25
## 289   2020-12-14          East of England     32
## 290   2020-12-15          East of England     35
## 291   2020-12-16          East of England     29
## 292   2020-12-17          East of England     42
## 293   2020-12-18          East of England     44
## 294   2020-12-19          East of England     54
## 295   2020-12-20          East of England     50
## 296   2020-12-21          East of England     65
## 297   2020-12-22          East of England     52
## 298   2020-12-23          East of England     60
## 299   2020-12-24          East of England     56
## 300   2020-12-25          East of England     56
## 301   2020-12-26          East of England     61
## 302   2020-12-27          East of England     53
## 303   2020-12-28          East of England     70
## 304   2020-12-29          East of England     51
## 305   2020-12-30          East of England     73
## 306   2020-12-31          East of England     81
## 307   2021-01-01          East of England     88
## 308   2021-01-02          East of England     65
## 309   2021-01-03          East of England     77
## 310   2021-01-04          East of England     85
## 311   2021-01-05          East of England    101
## 312   2021-01-06          East of England     91
## 313   2021-01-07          East of England    108
## 314   2021-01-08          East of England     84
## 315   2021-01-09          East of England    115
## 316   2021-01-10          East of England    114
## 317   2021-01-11          East of England    119
## 318   2021-01-12          East of England    120
## 319   2021-01-13          East of England    120
## 320   2021-01-14          East of England    111
## 321   2021-01-15          East of England    101
## 322   2021-01-16          East of England    112
## 323   2021-01-17          East of England    103
## 324   2021-01-18          East of England    110
## 325   2021-01-19          East of England    107
## 326   2021-01-20          East of England    107
## 327   2021-01-21          East of England     80
## 328   2021-01-22          East of England     34
## 329   2021-01-23          East of England      7
## 330   2020-03-01                   London      0
## 331   2020-03-02                   London      0
## 332   2020-03-03                   London      0
## 333   2020-03-04                   London      0
## 334   2020-03-05                   London      0
## 335   2020-03-06                   London      1
## 336   2020-03-07                   London      0
## 337   2020-03-08                   London      0
## 338   2020-03-09                   London      1
## 339   2020-03-10                   London      0
## 340   2020-03-11                   London      5
## 341   2020-03-12                   London      6
## 342   2020-03-13                   London     10
## 343   2020-03-14                   London     13
## 344   2020-03-15                   London      9
## 345   2020-03-16                   London     15
## 346   2020-03-17                   London     23
## 347   2020-03-18                   London     28
## 348   2020-03-19                   London     25
## 349   2020-03-20                   London     44
## 350   2020-03-21                   London     49
## 351   2020-03-22                   London     54
## 352   2020-03-23                   London     63
## 353   2020-03-24                   London     86
## 354   2020-03-25                   London    112
## 355   2020-03-26                   London    130
## 356   2020-03-27                   London    130
## 357   2020-03-28                   London    123
## 358   2020-03-29                   London    145
## 359   2020-03-30                   London    151
## 360   2020-03-31                   London    183
## 361   2020-04-01                   London    202
## 362   2020-04-02                   London    191
## 363   2020-04-03                   London    199
## 364   2020-04-04                   London    231
## 365   2020-04-05                   London    195
## 366   2020-04-06                   London    198
## 367   2020-04-07                   London    220
## 368   2020-04-08                   London    239
## 369   2020-04-09                   London    207
## 370   2020-04-10                   London    171
## 371   2020-04-11                   London    178
## 372   2020-04-12                   London    159
## 373   2020-04-13                   London    166
## 374   2020-04-14                   London    143
## 375   2020-04-15                   London    143
## 376   2020-04-16                   London    140
## 377   2020-04-17                   London    101
## 378   2020-04-18                   London    101
## 379   2020-04-19                   London    103
## 380   2020-04-20                   London     96
## 381   2020-04-21                   London     96
## 382   2020-04-22                   London    109
## 383   2020-04-23                   London     77
## 384   2020-04-24                   London     71
## 385   2020-04-25                   London     58
## 386   2020-04-26                   London     53
## 387   2020-04-27                   London     52
## 388   2020-04-28                   London     44
## 389   2020-04-29                   London     45
## 390   2020-04-30                   London     40
## 391   2020-05-01                   London     41
## 392   2020-05-02                   London     41
## 393   2020-05-03                   London     36
## 394   2020-05-04                   London     30
## 395   2020-05-05                   London     25
## 396   2020-05-06                   London     37
## 397   2020-05-07                   London     37
## 398   2020-05-08                   London     31
## 399   2020-05-09                   London     23
## 400   2020-05-10                   London     26
## 401   2020-05-11                   London     18
## 402   2020-05-12                   London     18
## 403   2020-05-13                   London     17
## 404   2020-05-14                   London     20
## 405   2020-05-15                   London     19
## 406   2020-05-16                   London     14
## 407   2020-05-17                   London     16
## 408   2020-05-18                   London     11
## 409   2020-05-19                   London     14
## 410   2020-05-20                   London     19
## 411   2020-05-21                   London     12
## 412   2020-05-22                   London     10
## 413   2020-05-23                   London      6
## 414   2020-05-24                   London      7
## 415   2020-05-25                   London      9
## 416   2020-05-26                   London     14
## 417   2020-05-27                   London      7
## 418   2020-05-28                   London      8
## 419   2020-05-29                   London      7
## 420   2020-05-30                   London     12
## 421   2020-05-31                   London      6
## 422   2020-06-01                   London     10
## 423   2020-06-02                   London      8
## 424   2020-06-03                   London      6
## 425   2020-06-04                   London      8
## 426   2020-06-05                   London      4
## 427   2020-06-06                   London      0
## 428   2020-06-07                   London      5
## 429   2020-06-08                   London      5
## 430   2020-06-09                   London      5
## 431   2020-06-10                   London      8
## 432   2020-06-11                   London      5
## 433   2020-06-12                   London      3
## 434   2020-06-13                   London      3
## 435   2020-06-14                   London      3
## 436   2020-06-15                   London      1
## 437   2020-06-16                   London      2
## 438   2020-06-17                   London      1
## 439   2020-06-18                   London      2
## 440   2020-06-19                   London      5
## 441   2020-06-20                   London      3
## 442   2020-06-21                   London      4
## 443   2020-06-22                   London      2
## 444   2020-06-23                   London      1
## 445   2020-06-24                   London      4
## 446   2020-06-25                   London      3
## 447   2020-06-26                   London      2
## 448   2020-06-27                   London      1
## 449   2020-06-28                   London      2
## 450   2020-06-29                   London      2
## 451   2020-06-30                   London      1
## 452   2020-07-01                   London      3
## 453   2020-07-02                   London      2
## 454   2020-07-03                   London      2
## 455   2020-07-04                   London      1
## 456   2020-07-05                   London      3
## 457   2020-07-06                   London      2
## 458   2020-07-07                   London      1
## 459   2020-07-08                   London      3
## 460   2020-07-09                   London      4
## 461   2020-07-10                   London      0
## 462   2020-07-11                   London      1
## 463   2020-07-12                   London      1
## 464   2020-07-13                   London      1
## 465   2020-07-14                   London      0
## 466   2020-07-15                   London      2
## 467   2020-07-16                   London      0
## 468   2020-07-17                   London      0
## 469   2020-07-18                   London      2
## 470   2020-07-19                   London      0
## 471   2020-07-20                   London      0
## 472   2020-07-21                   London      1
## 473   2020-07-22                   London      0
## 474   2020-07-23                   London      2
## 475   2020-07-24                   London      0
## 476   2020-07-25                   London      1
## 477   2020-07-26                   London      0
## 478   2020-07-27                   London      1
## 479   2020-07-28                   London      0
## 480   2020-07-29                   London      0
## 481   2020-07-30                   London      1
## 482   2020-07-31                   London      0
## 483   2020-08-01                   London      0
## 484   2020-08-02                   London      3
## 485   2020-08-03                   London      0
## 486   2020-08-04                   London      0
## 487   2020-08-05                   London      0
## 488   2020-08-06                   London      1
## 489   2020-08-07                   London      0
## 490   2020-08-08                   London      0
## 491   2020-08-09                   London      0
## 492   2020-08-10                   London      0
## 493   2020-08-11                   London      1
## 494   2020-08-12                   London      0
## 495   2020-08-13                   London      2
## 496   2020-08-14                   London      0
## 497   2020-08-15                   London      0
## 498   2020-08-16                   London      0
## 499   2020-08-17                   London      1
## 500   2020-08-18                   London      1
## 501   2020-08-19                   London      0
## 502   2020-08-20                   London      1
## 503   2020-08-21                   London      0
## 504   2020-08-22                   London      0
## 505   2020-08-23                   London      0
## 506   2020-08-24                   London      1
## 507   2020-08-25                   London      1
## 508   2020-08-26                   London      0
## 509   2020-08-27                   London      0
## 510   2020-08-28                   London      0
## 511   2020-08-29                   London      0
## 512   2020-08-30                   London      0
## 513   2020-08-31                   London      1
## 514   2020-09-01                   London      0
## 515   2020-09-02                   London      1
## 516   2020-09-03                   London      1
## 517   2020-09-04                   London      0
## 518   2020-09-05                   London      0
## 519   2020-09-06                   London      2
## 520   2020-09-07                   London      0
## 521   2020-09-08                   London      0
## 522   2020-09-09                   London      0
## 523   2020-09-10                   London      2
## 524   2020-09-11                   London      1
## 525   2020-09-12                   London      1
## 526   2020-09-13                   London      0
## 527   2020-09-14                   London      0
## 528   2020-09-15                   London      1
## 529   2020-09-16                   London      2
## 530   2020-09-17                   London      2
## 531   2020-09-18                   London      1
## 532   2020-09-19                   London      3
## 533   2020-09-20                   London      3
## 534   2020-09-21                   London      2
## 535   2020-09-22                   London      6
## 536   2020-09-23                   London      4
## 537   2020-09-24                   London      3
## 538   2020-09-25                   London      1
## 539   2020-09-26                   London      1
## 540   2020-09-27                   London      1
## 541   2020-09-28                   London      3
## 542   2020-09-29                   London      7
## 543   2020-09-30                   London      6
## 544   2020-10-01                   London      4
## 545   2020-10-02                   London      1
## 546   2020-10-03                   London      3
## 547   2020-10-04                   London      2
## 548   2020-10-05                   London      7
## 549   2020-10-06                   London      4
## 550   2020-10-07                   London      6
## 551   2020-10-08                   London      6
## 552   2020-10-09                   London      7
## 553   2020-10-10                   London      3
## 554   2020-10-11                   London      5
## 555   2020-10-12                   London      7
## 556   2020-10-13                   London      4
## 557   2020-10-14                   London      6
## 558   2020-10-15                   London     13
## 559   2020-10-16                   London      6
## 560   2020-10-17                   London      2
## 561   2020-10-18                   London      5
## 562   2020-10-19                   London     11
## 563   2020-10-20                   London      8
## 564   2020-10-21                   London     14
## 565   2020-10-22                   London     12
## 566   2020-10-23                   London      7
## 567   2020-10-24                   London     18
## 568   2020-10-25                   London     10
## 569   2020-10-26                   London     10
## 570   2020-10-27                   London     12
## 571   2020-10-28                   London     23
## 572   2020-10-29                   London     14
## 573   2020-10-30                   London     17
## 574   2020-10-31                   London      7
## 575   2020-11-01                   London     17
## 576   2020-11-02                   London     16
## 577   2020-11-03                   London     10
## 578   2020-11-04                   London     18
## 579   2020-11-05                   London     17
## 580   2020-11-06                   London     12
## 581   2020-11-07                   London     21
## 582   2020-11-08                   London     15
## 583   2020-11-09                   London     28
## 584   2020-11-10                   London     14
## 585   2020-11-11                   London     15
## 586   2020-11-12                   London     16
## 587   2020-11-13                   London     14
## 588   2020-11-14                   London     21
## 589   2020-11-15                   London     18
## 590   2020-11-16                   London     29
## 591   2020-11-17                   London     29
## 592   2020-11-18                   London     23
## 593   2020-11-19                   London     24
## 594   2020-11-20                   London     20
## 595   2020-11-21                   London     18
## 596   2020-11-22                   London     29
## 597   2020-11-23                   London     19
## 598   2020-11-24                   London     26
## 599   2020-11-25                   London     30
## 600   2020-11-26                   London     25
## 601   2020-11-27                   London     28
## 602   2020-11-28                   London     23
## 603   2020-11-29                   London     40
## 604   2020-11-30                   London     19
## 605   2020-12-01                   London     28
## 606   2020-12-02                   London     30
## 607   2020-12-03                   London     27
## 608   2020-12-04                   London     29
## 609   2020-12-05                   London     24
## 610   2020-12-06                   London     24
## 611   2020-12-07                   London     29
## 612   2020-12-08                   London     35
## 613   2020-12-09                   London     27
## 614   2020-12-10                   London     29
## 615   2020-12-11                   London     26
## 616   2020-12-12                   London     33
## 617   2020-12-13                   London     33
## 618   2020-12-14                   London     37
## 619   2020-12-15                   London     49
## 620   2020-12-16                   London     35
## 621   2020-12-17                   London     56
## 622   2020-12-18                   London     40
## 623   2020-12-19                   London     39
## 624   2020-12-20                   London     53
## 625   2020-12-21                   London     57
## 626   2020-12-22                   London     56
## 627   2020-12-23                   London     57
## 628   2020-12-24                   London     64
## 629   2020-12-25                   London     81
## 630   2020-12-26                   London     82
## 631   2020-12-27                   London     91
## 632   2020-12-28                   London     88
## 633   2020-12-29                   London    107
## 634   2020-12-30                   London     99
## 635   2020-12-31                   London    107
## 636   2021-01-01                   London    112
## 637   2021-01-02                   London    124
## 638   2021-01-03                   London    106
## 639   2021-01-04                   London    147
## 640   2021-01-05                   London    141
## 641   2021-01-06                   London    146
## 642   2021-01-07                   London    155
## 643   2021-01-08                   London    138
## 644   2021-01-09                   London    145
## 645   2021-01-10                   London    159
## 646   2021-01-11                   London    157
## 647   2021-01-12                   London    168
## 648   2021-01-13                   London    162
## 649   2021-01-14                   London    154
## 650   2021-01-15                   London    143
## 651   2021-01-16                   London    149
## 652   2021-01-17                   London    161
## 653   2021-01-18                   London    174
## 654   2021-01-19                   London    164
## 655   2021-01-20                   London    126
## 656   2021-01-21                   London    114
## 657   2021-01-22                   London     49
## 658   2021-01-23                   London      9
## 659   2020-03-01                 Midlands      0
## 660   2020-03-02                 Midlands      0
## 661   2020-03-03                 Midlands      1
## 662   2020-03-04                 Midlands      0
## 663   2020-03-05                 Midlands      0
## 664   2020-03-06                 Midlands      0
## 665   2020-03-07                 Midlands      0
## 666   2020-03-08                 Midlands      2
## 667   2020-03-09                 Midlands      1
## 668   2020-03-10                 Midlands      0
## 669   2020-03-11                 Midlands      2
## 670   2020-03-12                 Midlands      6
## 671   2020-03-13                 Midlands      5
## 672   2020-03-14                 Midlands      4
## 673   2020-03-15                 Midlands      5
## 674   2020-03-16                 Midlands     11
## 675   2020-03-17                 Midlands      8
## 676   2020-03-18                 Midlands     13
## 677   2020-03-19                 Midlands      8
## 678   2020-03-20                 Midlands     28
## 679   2020-03-21                 Midlands     13
## 680   2020-03-22                 Midlands     31
## 681   2020-03-23                 Midlands     33
## 682   2020-03-24                 Midlands     41
## 683   2020-03-25                 Midlands     48
## 684   2020-03-26                 Midlands     64
## 685   2020-03-27                 Midlands     72
## 686   2020-03-28                 Midlands     89
## 687   2020-03-29                 Midlands     92
## 688   2020-03-30                 Midlands     90
## 689   2020-03-31                 Midlands    123
## 690   2020-04-01                 Midlands    140
## 691   2020-04-02                 Midlands    142
## 692   2020-04-03                 Midlands    124
## 693   2020-04-04                 Midlands    151
## 694   2020-04-05                 Midlands    164
## 695   2020-04-06                 Midlands    140
## 696   2020-04-07                 Midlands    123
## 697   2020-04-08                 Midlands    186
## 698   2020-04-09                 Midlands    140
## 699   2020-04-10                 Midlands    127
## 700   2020-04-11                 Midlands    142
## 701   2020-04-12                 Midlands    139
## 702   2020-04-13                 Midlands    120
## 703   2020-04-14                 Midlands    116
## 704   2020-04-15                 Midlands    147
## 705   2020-04-16                 Midlands    102
## 706   2020-04-17                 Midlands    118
## 707   2020-04-18                 Midlands    115
## 708   2020-04-19                 Midlands     93
## 709   2020-04-20                 Midlands    107
## 710   2020-04-21                 Midlands     86
## 711   2020-04-22                 Midlands     78
## 712   2020-04-23                 Midlands    103
## 713   2020-04-24                 Midlands     79
## 714   2020-04-25                 Midlands     72
## 715   2020-04-26                 Midlands     81
## 716   2020-04-27                 Midlands     74
## 717   2020-04-28                 Midlands     68
## 718   2020-04-29                 Midlands     53
## 719   2020-04-30                 Midlands     56
## 720   2020-05-01                 Midlands     64
## 721   2020-05-02                 Midlands     51
## 722   2020-05-03                 Midlands     52
## 723   2020-05-04                 Midlands     61
## 724   2020-05-05                 Midlands     59
## 725   2020-05-06                 Midlands     59
## 726   2020-05-07                 Midlands     48
## 727   2020-05-08                 Midlands     34
## 728   2020-05-09                 Midlands     37
## 729   2020-05-10                 Midlands     42
## 730   2020-05-11                 Midlands     33
## 731   2020-05-12                 Midlands     45
## 732   2020-05-13                 Midlands     40
## 733   2020-05-14                 Midlands     39
## 734   2020-05-15                 Midlands     40
## 735   2020-05-16                 Midlands     34
## 736   2020-05-17                 Midlands     31
## 737   2020-05-18                 Midlands     36
## 738   2020-05-19                 Midlands     35
## 739   2020-05-20                 Midlands     36
## 740   2020-05-21                 Midlands     32
## 741   2020-05-22                 Midlands     27
## 742   2020-05-23                 Midlands     34
## 743   2020-05-24                 Midlands     20
## 744   2020-05-25                 Midlands     26
## 745   2020-05-26                 Midlands     33
## 746   2020-05-27                 Midlands     29
## 747   2020-05-28                 Midlands     28
## 748   2020-05-29                 Midlands     20
## 749   2020-05-30                 Midlands     21
## 750   2020-05-31                 Midlands     22
## 751   2020-06-01                 Midlands     20
## 752   2020-06-02                 Midlands     22
## 753   2020-06-03                 Midlands     24
## 754   2020-06-04                 Midlands     16
## 755   2020-06-05                 Midlands     21
## 756   2020-06-06                 Midlands     20
## 757   2020-06-07                 Midlands     17
## 758   2020-06-08                 Midlands     16
## 759   2020-06-09                 Midlands     18
## 760   2020-06-10                 Midlands     15
## 761   2020-06-11                 Midlands     13
## 762   2020-06-12                 Midlands     12
## 763   2020-06-13                 Midlands      6
## 764   2020-06-14                 Midlands     18
## 765   2020-06-15                 Midlands     12
## 766   2020-06-16                 Midlands     15
## 767   2020-06-17                 Midlands     11
## 768   2020-06-18                 Midlands     15
## 769   2020-06-19                 Midlands     10
## 770   2020-06-20                 Midlands     15
## 771   2020-06-21                 Midlands     14
## 772   2020-06-22                 Midlands     14
## 773   2020-06-23                 Midlands     16
## 774   2020-06-24                 Midlands     15
## 775   2020-06-25                 Midlands     18
## 776   2020-06-26                 Midlands      5
## 777   2020-06-27                 Midlands      5
## 778   2020-06-28                 Midlands      7
## 779   2020-06-29                 Midlands      6
## 780   2020-06-30                 Midlands      6
## 781   2020-07-01                 Midlands      7
## 782   2020-07-02                 Midlands     10
## 783   2020-07-03                 Midlands      3
## 784   2020-07-04                 Midlands      4
## 785   2020-07-05                 Midlands      6
## 786   2020-07-06                 Midlands      5
## 787   2020-07-07                 Midlands      3
## 788   2020-07-08                 Midlands      5
## 789   2020-07-09                 Midlands      9
## 790   2020-07-10                 Midlands      3
## 791   2020-07-11                 Midlands      0
## 792   2020-07-12                 Midlands      5
## 793   2020-07-13                 Midlands      1
## 794   2020-07-14                 Midlands      1
## 795   2020-07-15                 Midlands      6
## 796   2020-07-16                 Midlands      2
## 797   2020-07-17                 Midlands      3
## 798   2020-07-18                 Midlands      3
## 799   2020-07-19                 Midlands      3
## 800   2020-07-20                 Midlands      3
## 801   2020-07-21                 Midlands      1
## 802   2020-07-22                 Midlands      2
## 803   2020-07-23                 Midlands      6
## 804   2020-07-24                 Midlands      1
## 805   2020-07-25                 Midlands      4
## 806   2020-07-26                 Midlands      4
## 807   2020-07-27                 Midlands      5
## 808   2020-07-28                 Midlands      1
## 809   2020-07-29                 Midlands      1
## 810   2020-07-30                 Midlands      1
## 811   2020-07-31                 Midlands      2
## 812   2020-08-01                 Midlands      0
## 813   2020-08-02                 Midlands      1
## 814   2020-08-03                 Midlands      2
## 815   2020-08-04                 Midlands      1
## 816   2020-08-05                 Midlands      1
## 817   2020-08-06                 Midlands      0
## 818   2020-08-07                 Midlands      3
## 819   2020-08-08                 Midlands      2
## 820   2020-08-09                 Midlands      0
## 821   2020-08-10                 Midlands      0
## 822   2020-08-11                 Midlands      2
## 823   2020-08-12                 Midlands      0
## 824   2020-08-13                 Midlands      0
## 825   2020-08-14                 Midlands      0
## 826   2020-08-15                 Midlands      1
## 827   2020-08-16                 Midlands      0
## 828   2020-08-17                 Midlands      0
## 829   2020-08-18                 Midlands      0
## 830   2020-08-19                 Midlands      0
## 831   2020-08-20                 Midlands      0
## 832   2020-08-21                 Midlands      1
## 833   2020-08-22                 Midlands      0
## 834   2020-08-23                 Midlands      0
## 835   2020-08-24                 Midlands      0
## 836   2020-08-25                 Midlands      2
## 837   2020-08-26                 Midlands      3
## 838   2020-08-27                 Midlands      2
## 839   2020-08-28                 Midlands      1
## 840   2020-08-29                 Midlands      0
## 841   2020-08-30                 Midlands      2
## 842   2020-08-31                 Midlands      1
## 843   2020-09-01                 Midlands      0
## 844   2020-09-02                 Midlands      2
## 845   2020-09-03                 Midlands      0
## 846   2020-09-04                 Midlands      0
## 847   2020-09-05                 Midlands      0
## 848   2020-09-06                 Midlands      1
## 849   2020-09-07                 Midlands      1
## 850   2020-09-08                 Midlands      3
## 851   2020-09-09                 Midlands      0
## 852   2020-09-10                 Midlands      1
## 853   2020-09-11                 Midlands      1
## 854   2020-09-12                 Midlands      2
## 855   2020-09-13                 Midlands      4
## 856   2020-09-14                 Midlands      1
## 857   2020-09-15                 Midlands      2
## 858   2020-09-16                 Midlands      3
## 859   2020-09-17                 Midlands      2
## 860   2020-09-18                 Midlands      5
## 861   2020-09-19                 Midlands      2
## 862   2020-09-20                 Midlands      7
## 863   2020-09-21                 Midlands      3
## 864   2020-09-22                 Midlands      4
## 865   2020-09-23                 Midlands     10
## 866   2020-09-24                 Midlands      7
## 867   2020-09-25                 Midlands      4
## 868   2020-09-26                 Midlands      5
## 869   2020-09-27                 Midlands      9
## 870   2020-09-28                 Midlands      6
## 871   2020-09-29                 Midlands      4
## 872   2020-09-30                 Midlands      5
## 873   2020-10-01                 Midlands      8
## 874   2020-10-02                 Midlands      7
## 875   2020-10-03                 Midlands      6
## 876   2020-10-04                 Midlands      7
## 877   2020-10-05                 Midlands      6
## 878   2020-10-06                 Midlands      5
## 879   2020-10-07                 Midlands      9
## 880   2020-10-08                 Midlands      8
## 881   2020-10-09                 Midlands      7
## 882   2020-10-10                 Midlands      2
## 883   2020-10-11                 Midlands     15
## 884   2020-10-12                 Midlands      7
## 885   2020-10-13                 Midlands     16
## 886   2020-10-14                 Midlands     12
## 887   2020-10-15                 Midlands     11
## 888   2020-10-16                 Midlands     18
## 889   2020-10-17                 Midlands     25
## 890   2020-10-18                 Midlands     11
## 891   2020-10-19                 Midlands     14
## 892   2020-10-20                 Midlands     19
## 893   2020-10-21                 Midlands     15
## 894   2020-10-22                 Midlands     34
## 895   2020-10-23                 Midlands     32
## 896   2020-10-24                 Midlands     24
## 897   2020-10-25                 Midlands     30
## 898   2020-10-26                 Midlands     33
## 899   2020-10-27                 Midlands     38
## 900   2020-10-28                 Midlands     30
## 901   2020-10-29                 Midlands     42
## 902   2020-10-30                 Midlands     42
## 903   2020-10-31                 Midlands     50
## 904   2020-11-01                 Midlands     44
## 905   2020-11-02                 Midlands     58
## 906   2020-11-03                 Midlands     37
## 907   2020-11-04                 Midlands     67
## 908   2020-11-05                 Midlands     50
## 909   2020-11-06                 Midlands     43
## 910   2020-11-07                 Midlands     60
## 911   2020-11-08                 Midlands     55
## 912   2020-11-09                 Midlands     67
## 913   2020-11-10                 Midlands     68
## 914   2020-11-11                 Midlands     57
## 915   2020-11-12                 Midlands     64
## 916   2020-11-13                 Midlands     47
## 917   2020-11-14                 Midlands     66
## 918   2020-11-15                 Midlands     72
## 919   2020-11-16                 Midlands     66
## 920   2020-11-17                 Midlands     66
## 921   2020-11-18                 Midlands     83
## 922   2020-11-19                 Midlands     72
## 923   2020-11-20                 Midlands     87
## 924   2020-11-21                 Midlands     59
## 925   2020-11-22                 Midlands     84
## 926   2020-11-23                 Midlands     80
## 927   2020-11-24                 Midlands     73
## 928   2020-11-25                 Midlands     74
## 929   2020-11-26                 Midlands     77
## 930   2020-11-27                 Midlands     78
## 931   2020-11-28                 Midlands     80
## 932   2020-11-29                 Midlands     86
## 933   2020-11-30                 Midlands     79
## 934   2020-12-01                 Midlands     74
## 935   2020-12-02                 Midlands     64
## 936   2020-12-03                 Midlands     82
## 937   2020-12-04                 Midlands     67
## 938   2020-12-05                 Midlands     71
## 939   2020-12-06                 Midlands     75
## 940   2020-12-07                 Midlands     68
## 941   2020-12-08                 Midlands     65
## 942   2020-12-09                 Midlands     63
## 943   2020-12-10                 Midlands     74
## 944   2020-12-11                 Midlands     65
## 945   2020-12-12                 Midlands     80
## 946   2020-12-13                 Midlands     77
## 947   2020-12-14                 Midlands     76
## 948   2020-12-15                 Midlands     73
## 949   2020-12-16                 Midlands     73
## 950   2020-12-17                 Midlands     84
## 951   2020-12-18                 Midlands     80
## 952   2020-12-19                 Midlands     57
## 953   2020-12-20                 Midlands     66
## 954   2020-12-21                 Midlands     84
## 955   2020-12-22                 Midlands     74
## 956   2020-12-23                 Midlands     58
## 957   2020-12-24                 Midlands     66
## 958   2020-12-25                 Midlands     78
## 959   2020-12-26                 Midlands     71
## 960   2020-12-27                 Midlands     84
## 961   2020-12-28                 Midlands     62
## 962   2020-12-29                 Midlands     81
## 963   2020-12-30                 Midlands     97
## 964   2020-12-31                 Midlands     86
## 965   2021-01-01                 Midlands     75
## 966   2021-01-02                 Midlands     74
## 967   2021-01-03                 Midlands     70
## 968   2021-01-04                 Midlands     91
## 969   2021-01-05                 Midlands    101
## 970   2021-01-06                 Midlands    109
## 971   2021-01-07                 Midlands    102
## 972   2021-01-08                 Midlands    129
## 973   2021-01-09                 Midlands    137
## 974   2021-01-10                 Midlands    118
## 975   2021-01-11                 Midlands    142
## 976   2021-01-12                 Midlands    157
## 977   2021-01-13                 Midlands    137
## 978   2021-01-14                 Midlands    152
## 979   2021-01-15                 Midlands    130
## 980   2021-01-16                 Midlands    147
## 981   2021-01-17                 Midlands    150
## 982   2021-01-18                 Midlands    154
## 983   2021-01-19                 Midlands    147
## 984   2021-01-20                 Midlands    132
## 985   2021-01-21                 Midlands    128
## 986   2021-01-22                 Midlands     98
## 987   2021-01-23                 Midlands     16
## 988   2020-03-01 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 989   2020-03-02 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 990   2020-03-03 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 991   2020-03-04 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 992   2020-03-05 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 993   2020-03-06 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 994   2020-03-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 995   2020-03-08 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 996   2020-03-09 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 997   2020-03-10 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 998   2020-03-11 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 999   2020-03-12 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1000  2020-03-13 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1001  2020-03-14 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1002  2020-03-15 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1003  2020-03-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1004  2020-03-17 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1005  2020-03-18 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1006  2020-03-19 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1007  2020-03-20 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1008  2020-03-21 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1009  2020-03-22 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1010  2020-03-23 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1011  2020-03-24 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1012  2020-03-25 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1013  2020-03-26 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1014  2020-03-27 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1015  2020-03-28 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1016  2020-03-29 North East and Yorkshire     38
## 1017  2020-03-30 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1018  2020-03-31 North East and Yorkshire     60
## 1019  2020-04-01 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1020  2020-04-02 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1021  2020-04-03 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1022  2020-04-04 North East and Yorkshire    105
## 1023  2020-04-05 North East and Yorkshire     92
## 1024  2020-04-06 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1025  2020-04-07 North East and Yorkshire    102
## 1026  2020-04-08 North East and Yorkshire    107
## 1027  2020-04-09 North East and Yorkshire    111
## 1028  2020-04-10 North East and Yorkshire    117
## 1029  2020-04-11 North East and Yorkshire     98
## 1030  2020-04-12 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1031  2020-04-13 North East and Yorkshire     94
## 1032  2020-04-14 North East and Yorkshire    107
## 1033  2020-04-15 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1034  2020-04-16 North East and Yorkshire    103
## 1035  2020-04-17 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1036  2020-04-18 North East and Yorkshire     95
## 1037  2020-04-19 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1038  2020-04-20 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1039  2020-04-21 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1040  2020-04-22 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1041  2020-04-23 North East and Yorkshire     63
## 1042  2020-04-24 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1043  2020-04-25 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1044  2020-04-26 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1045  2020-04-27 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1046  2020-04-28 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1047  2020-04-29 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1048  2020-04-30 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1049  2020-05-01 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1050  2020-05-02 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1051  2020-05-03 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1052  2020-05-04 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1053  2020-05-05 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1054  2020-05-06 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1055  2020-05-07 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1056  2020-05-08 North East and Yorkshire     42
## 1057  2020-05-09 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1058  2020-05-10 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1059  2020-05-11 North East and Yorkshire     29
## 1060  2020-05-12 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1061  2020-05-13 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1062  2020-05-14 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1063  2020-05-15 North East and Yorkshire     32
## 1064  2020-05-16 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1065  2020-05-17 North East and Yorkshire     26
## 1066  2020-05-18 North East and Yorkshire     30
## 1067  2020-05-19 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1068  2020-05-20 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1069  2020-05-21 North East and Yorkshire     33
## 1070  2020-05-22 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1071  2020-05-23 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1072  2020-05-24 North East and Yorkshire     26
## 1073  2020-05-25 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1074  2020-05-26 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1075  2020-05-27 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1076  2020-05-28 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1077  2020-05-29 North East and Yorkshire     25
## 1078  2020-05-30 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1079  2020-05-31 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1080  2020-06-01 North East and Yorkshire     17
## 1081  2020-06-02 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1082  2020-06-03 North East and Yorkshire     24
## 1083  2020-06-04 North East and Yorkshire     17
## 1084  2020-06-05 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1085  2020-06-06 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1086  2020-06-07 North East and Yorkshire     14
## 1087  2020-06-08 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1088  2020-06-09 North East and Yorkshire     12
## 1089  2020-06-10 North East and Yorkshire     19
## 1090  2020-06-11 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1091  2020-06-12 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1092  2020-06-13 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1093  2020-06-14 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1094  2020-06-15 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1095  2020-06-16 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1096  2020-06-17 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1097  2020-06-18 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1098  2020-06-19 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1099  2020-06-20 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1100  2020-06-21 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1101  2020-06-22 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1102  2020-06-23 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1103  2020-06-24 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1104  2020-06-25 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1105  2020-06-26 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1106  2020-06-27 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1107  2020-06-28 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1108  2020-06-29 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1109  2020-06-30 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1110  2020-07-01 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1111  2020-07-02 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1112  2020-07-03 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1113  2020-07-04 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1114  2020-07-05 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1115  2020-07-06 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1116  2020-07-07 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1117  2020-07-08 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1118  2020-07-09 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1119  2020-07-10 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1120  2020-07-11 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1121  2020-07-12 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1122  2020-07-13 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1123  2020-07-14 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1124  2020-07-15 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1125  2020-07-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1126  2020-07-17 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1127  2020-07-18 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1128  2020-07-19 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1129  2020-07-20 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1130  2020-07-21 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1131  2020-07-22 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1132  2020-07-23 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1133  2020-07-24 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1134  2020-07-25 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1135  2020-07-26 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1136  2020-07-27 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1137  2020-07-28 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1138  2020-07-29 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1139  2020-07-30 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1140  2020-07-31 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1141  2020-08-01 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1142  2020-08-02 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1143  2020-08-03 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1144  2020-08-04 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1145  2020-08-05 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1146  2020-08-06 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1147  2020-08-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1148  2020-08-08 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1149  2020-08-09 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1150  2020-08-10 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1151  2020-08-11 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1152  2020-08-12 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1153  2020-08-13 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1154  2020-08-14 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1155  2020-08-15 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1156  2020-08-16 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1157  2020-08-17 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1158  2020-08-18 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1159  2020-08-19 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1160  2020-08-20 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1161  2020-08-21 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1162  2020-08-22 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1163  2020-08-23 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1164  2020-08-24 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1165  2020-08-25 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1166  2020-08-26 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1167  2020-08-27 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1168  2020-08-28 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1169  2020-08-29 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1170  2020-08-30 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1171  2020-08-31 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1172  2020-09-01 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1173  2020-09-02 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1174  2020-09-03 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1175  2020-09-04 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1176  2020-09-05 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1177  2020-09-06 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1178  2020-09-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1179  2020-09-08 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1180  2020-09-09 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1181  2020-09-10 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1182  2020-09-11 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1183  2020-09-12 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1184  2020-09-13 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1185  2020-09-14 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1186  2020-09-15 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1187  2020-09-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1188  2020-09-17 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1189  2020-09-18 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1190  2020-09-19 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1191  2020-09-20 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1192  2020-09-21 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1193  2020-09-22 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1194  2020-09-23 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1195  2020-09-24 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1196  2020-09-25 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1197  2020-09-26 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1198  2020-09-27 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1199  2020-09-28 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1200  2020-09-29 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1201  2020-09-30 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1202  2020-10-01 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1203  2020-10-02 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1204  2020-10-03 North East and Yorkshire     12
## 1205  2020-10-04 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1206  2020-10-05 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1207  2020-10-06 North East and Yorkshire     15
## 1208  2020-10-07 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1209  2020-10-08 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1210  2020-10-09 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1211  2020-10-10 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1212  2020-10-11 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1213  2020-10-12 North East and Yorkshire     15
## 1214  2020-10-13 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1215  2020-10-14 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1216  2020-10-15 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1217  2020-10-16 North East and Yorkshire     24
## 1218  2020-10-17 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1219  2020-10-18 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1220  2020-10-19 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1221  2020-10-20 North East and Yorkshire     37
## 1222  2020-10-21 North East and Yorkshire     42
## 1223  2020-10-22 North East and Yorkshire     33
## 1224  2020-10-23 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1225  2020-10-24 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1226  2020-10-25 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1227  2020-10-26 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1228  2020-10-27 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1229  2020-10-28 North East and Yorkshire     39
## 1230  2020-10-29 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1231  2020-10-30 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1232  2020-10-31 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1233  2020-11-01 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1234  2020-11-02 North East and Yorkshire     50
## 1235  2020-11-03 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1236  2020-11-04 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1237  2020-11-05 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1238  2020-11-06 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1239  2020-11-07 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1240  2020-11-08 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1241  2020-11-09 North East and Yorkshire     87
## 1242  2020-11-10 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1243  2020-11-11 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1244  2020-11-12 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1245  2020-11-13 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1246  2020-11-14 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1247  2020-11-15 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1248  2020-11-16 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1249  2020-11-17 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1250  2020-11-18 North East and Yorkshire     80
## 1251  2020-11-19 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1252  2020-11-20 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1253  2020-11-21 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1254  2020-11-22 North East and Yorkshire     80
## 1255  2020-11-23 North East and Yorkshire     83
## 1256  2020-11-24 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1257  2020-11-25 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1258  2020-11-26 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1259  2020-11-27 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1260  2020-11-28 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1261  2020-11-29 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1262  2020-11-30 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1263  2020-12-01 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1264  2020-12-02 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1265  2020-12-03 North East and Yorkshire     71
## 1266  2020-12-04 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1267  2020-12-05 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1268  2020-12-06 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1269  2020-12-07 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1270  2020-12-08 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1271  2020-12-09 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1272  2020-12-10 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1273  2020-12-11 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1274  2020-12-12 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1275  2020-12-13 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1276  2020-12-14 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1277  2020-12-15 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1278  2020-12-16 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1279  2020-12-17 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1280  2020-12-18 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1281  2020-12-19 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1282  2020-12-20 North East and Yorkshire     52
## 1283  2020-12-21 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1284  2020-12-22 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1285  2020-12-23 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1286  2020-12-24 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1287  2020-12-25 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1288  2020-12-26 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1289  2020-12-27 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1290  2020-12-28 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1291  2020-12-29 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1292  2020-12-30 North East and Yorkshire     41
## 1293  2020-12-31 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1294  2021-01-01 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1295  2021-01-02 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1296  2021-01-03 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1297  2021-01-04 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1298  2021-01-05 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1299  2021-01-06 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1300  2021-01-07 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1301  2021-01-08 North East and Yorkshire     66
## 1302  2021-01-09 North East and Yorkshire     53
## 1303  2021-01-10 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1304  2021-01-11 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1305  2021-01-12 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1306  2021-01-13 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1307  2021-01-14 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1308  2021-01-15 North East and Yorkshire     83
## 1309  2021-01-16 North East and Yorkshire     95
## 1310  2021-01-17 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1311  2021-01-18 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1312  2021-01-19 North East and Yorkshire     98
## 1313  2021-01-20 North East and Yorkshire     82
## 1314  2021-01-21 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1315  2021-01-22 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1316  2021-01-23 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1317  2020-03-01               North West      0
## 1318  2020-03-02               North West      0
## 1319  2020-03-03               North West      0
## 1320  2020-03-04               North West      0
## 1321  2020-03-05               North West      1
## 1322  2020-03-06               North West      0
## 1323  2020-03-07               North West      0
## 1324  2020-03-08               North West      1
## 1325  2020-03-09               North West      0
## 1326  2020-03-10               North West      0
## 1327  2020-03-11               North West      0
## 1328  2020-03-12               North West      2
## 1329  2020-03-13               North West      3
## 1330  2020-03-14               North West      1
## 1331  2020-03-15               North West      4
## 1332  2020-03-16               North West      2
## 1333  2020-03-17               North West      4
## 1334  2020-03-18               North West      6
## 1335  2020-03-19               North West      7
## 1336  2020-03-20               North West     10
## 1337  2020-03-21               North West     11
## 1338  2020-03-22               North West     13
## 1339  2020-03-23               North West     15
## 1340  2020-03-24               North West     21
## 1341  2020-03-25               North West     21
## 1342  2020-03-26               North West     29
## 1343  2020-03-27               North West     36
## 1344  2020-03-28               North West     28
## 1345  2020-03-29               North West     46
## 1346  2020-03-30               North West     67
## 1347  2020-03-31               North West     52
## 1348  2020-04-01               North West     86
## 1349  2020-04-02               North West     96
## 1350  2020-04-03               North West     95
## 1351  2020-04-04               North West     98
## 1352  2020-04-05               North West    102
## 1353  2020-04-06               North West    100
## 1354  2020-04-07               North West    136
## 1355  2020-04-08               North West    127
## 1356  2020-04-09               North West    119
## 1357  2020-04-10               North West    117
## 1358  2020-04-11               North West    138
## 1359  2020-04-12               North West    125
## 1360  2020-04-13               North West    130
## 1361  2020-04-14               North West    130
## 1362  2020-04-15               North West    114
## 1363  2020-04-16               North West    135
## 1364  2020-04-17               North West     98
## 1365  2020-04-18               North West    113
## 1366  2020-04-19               North West     71
## 1367  2020-04-20               North West     83
## 1368  2020-04-21               North West     76
## 1369  2020-04-22               North West     86
## 1370  2020-04-23               North West     85
## 1371  2020-04-24               North West     66
## 1372  2020-04-25               North West     66
## 1373  2020-04-26               North West     55
## 1374  2020-04-27               North West     54
## 1375  2020-04-28               North West     57
## 1376  2020-04-29               North West     63
## 1377  2020-04-30               North West     60
## 1378  2020-05-01               North West     45
## 1379  2020-05-02               North West     56
## 1380  2020-05-03               North West     55
## 1381  2020-05-04               North West     48
## 1382  2020-05-05               North West     48
## 1383  2020-05-06               North West     44
## 1384  2020-05-07               North West     49
## 1385  2020-05-08               North West     42
## 1386  2020-05-09               North West     31
## 1387  2020-05-10               North West     42
## 1388  2020-05-11               North West     35
## 1389  2020-05-12               North West     38
## 1390  2020-05-13               North West     25
## 1391  2020-05-14               North West     26
## 1392  2020-05-15               North West     33
## 1393  2020-05-16               North West     32
## 1394  2020-05-17               North West     24
## 1395  2020-05-18               North West     31
## 1396  2020-05-19               North West     35
## 1397  2020-05-20               North West     27
## 1398  2020-05-21               North West     28
## 1399  2020-05-22               North West     26
## 1400  2020-05-23               North West     31
## 1401  2020-05-24               North West     26
## 1402  2020-05-25               North West     31
## 1403  2020-05-26               North West     27
## 1404  2020-05-27               North West     27
## 1405  2020-05-28               North West     28
## 1406  2020-05-29               North West     20
## 1407  2020-05-30               North West     19
## 1408  2020-05-31               North West     13
## 1409  2020-06-01               North West     12
## 1410  2020-06-02               North West     27
## 1411  2020-06-03               North West     22
## 1412  2020-06-04               North West     22
## 1413  2020-06-05               North West     16
## 1414  2020-06-06               North West     26
## 1415  2020-06-07               North West     20
## 1416  2020-06-08               North West     23
## 1417  2020-06-09               North West     17
## 1418  2020-06-10               North West     16
## 1419  2020-06-11               North West     16
## 1420  2020-06-12               North West     11
## 1421  2020-06-13               North West     10
## 1422  2020-06-14               North West     15
## 1423  2020-06-15               North West     16
## 1424  2020-06-16               North West     16
## 1425  2020-06-17               North West     13
## 1426  2020-06-18               North West     14
## 1427  2020-06-19               North West      7
## 1428  2020-06-20               North West     11
## 1429  2020-06-21               North West      8
## 1430  2020-06-22               North West     11
## 1431  2020-06-23               North West     13
## 1432  2020-06-24               North West     13
## 1433  2020-06-25               North West     15
## 1434  2020-06-26               North West      6
## 1435  2020-06-27               North West      7
## 1436  2020-06-28               North West      9
## 1437  2020-06-29               North West      9
## 1438  2020-06-30               North West      7
## 1439  2020-07-01               North West      3
## 1440  2020-07-02               North West      6
## 1441  2020-07-03               North West      7
## 1442  2020-07-04               North West      4
## 1443  2020-07-05               North West      6
## 1444  2020-07-06               North West      9
## 1445  2020-07-07               North West      8
## 1446  2020-07-08               North West      5
## 1447  2020-07-09               North West     10
## 1448  2020-07-10               North West      2
## 1449  2020-07-11               North West      5
## 1450  2020-07-12               North West      0
## 1451  2020-07-13               North West      6
## 1452  2020-07-14               North West      4
## 1453  2020-07-15               North West      5
## 1454  2020-07-16               North West      2
## 1455  2020-07-17               North West      4
## 1456  2020-07-18               North West      5
## 1457  2020-07-19               North West      3
## 1458  2020-07-20               North West      0
## 1459  2020-07-21               North West      2
## 1460  2020-07-22               North West      3
## 1461  2020-07-23               North West      3
## 1462  2020-07-24               North West      1
## 1463  2020-07-25               North West      1
## 1464  2020-07-26               North West      3
## 1465  2020-07-27               North West      1
## 1466  2020-07-28               North West      1
## 1467  2020-07-29               North West      2
## 1468  2020-07-30               North West      2
## 1469  2020-07-31               North West      0
## 1470  2020-08-01               North West      2
## 1471  2020-08-02               North West      1
## 1472  2020-08-03               North West      8
## 1473  2020-08-04               North West      3
## 1474  2020-08-05               North West      2
## 1475  2020-08-06               North West      2
## 1476  2020-08-07               North West      2
## 1477  2020-08-08               North West      2
## 1478  2020-08-09               North West      3
## 1479  2020-08-10               North West      2
## 1480  2020-08-11               North West      3
## 1481  2020-08-12               North West      0
## 1482  2020-08-13               North West      2
## 1483  2020-08-14               North West      2
## 1484  2020-08-15               North West      6
## 1485  2020-08-16               North West      2
## 1486  2020-08-17               North West      1
## 1487  2020-08-18               North West      2
## 1488  2020-08-19               North West      1
## 1489  2020-08-20               North West      1
## 1490  2020-08-21               North West      4
## 1491  2020-08-22               North West      3
## 1492  2020-08-23               North West      5
## 1493  2020-08-24               North West      4
## 1494  2020-08-25               North West      3
## 1495  2020-08-26               North West      4
## 1496  2020-08-27               North West      1
## 1497  2020-08-28               North West      2
## 1498  2020-08-29               North West      0
## 1499  2020-08-30               North West      2
## 1500  2020-08-31               North West      3
## 1501  2020-09-01               North West      0
## 1502  2020-09-02               North West      2
## 1503  2020-09-03               North West      1
## 1504  2020-09-04               North West      3
## 1505  2020-09-05               North West      6
## 1506  2020-09-06               North West      1
## 1507  2020-09-07               North West      8
## 1508  2020-09-08               North West      6
## 1509  2020-09-09               North West      5
## 1510  2020-09-10               North West      5
## 1511  2020-09-11               North West      1
## 1512  2020-09-12               North West      4
## 1513  2020-09-13               North West      2
## 1514  2020-09-14               North West      4
## 1515  2020-09-15               North West      4
## 1516  2020-09-16               North West      6
## 1517  2020-09-17               North West      7
## 1518  2020-09-18               North West      6
## 1519  2020-09-19               North West      3
## 1520  2020-09-20               North West      2
## 1521  2020-09-21               North West      2
## 1522  2020-09-22               North West      9
## 1523  2020-09-23               North West     14
## 1524  2020-09-24               North West     10
## 1525  2020-09-25               North West      8
## 1526  2020-09-26               North West     14
## 1527  2020-09-27               North West     11
## 1528  2020-09-28               North West     15
## 1529  2020-09-29               North West     12
## 1530  2020-09-30               North West     17
## 1531  2020-10-01               North West     17
## 1532  2020-10-02               North West     20
## 1533  2020-10-03               North West     15
## 1534  2020-10-04               North West     15
## 1535  2020-10-05               North West     15
## 1536  2020-10-06               North West     20
## 1537  2020-10-07               North West     20
## 1538  2020-10-08               North West     22
## 1539  2020-10-09               North West     23
## 1540  2020-10-10               North West     31
## 1541  2020-10-11               North West     31
## 1542  2020-10-12               North West     35
## 1543  2020-10-13               North West     26
## 1544  2020-10-14               North West     35
## 1545  2020-10-15               North West     36
## 1546  2020-10-16               North West     34
## 1547  2020-10-17               North West     52
## 1548  2020-10-18               North West     40
## 1549  2020-10-19               North West     43
## 1550  2020-10-20               North West     48
## 1551  2020-10-21               North West     51
## 1552  2020-10-22               North West     49
## 1553  2020-10-23               North West     50
## 1554  2020-10-24               North West     51
## 1555  2020-10-25               North West     63
## 1556  2020-10-26               North West     53
## 1557  2020-10-27               North West     49
## 1558  2020-10-28               North West     57
## 1559  2020-10-29               North West     74
## 1560  2020-10-30               North West     73
## 1561  2020-10-31               North West     63
## 1562  2020-11-01               North West     76
## 1563  2020-11-02               North West     65
## 1564  2020-11-03               North West     76
## 1565  2020-11-04               North West     64
## 1566  2020-11-05               North West     67
## 1567  2020-11-06               North West     75
## 1568  2020-11-07               North West     79
## 1569  2020-11-08               North West     83
## 1570  2020-11-09               North West     82
## 1571  2020-11-10               North West     68
## 1572  2020-11-11               North West     61
## 1573  2020-11-12               North West     64
## 1574  2020-11-13               North West     81
## 1575  2020-11-14               North West     61
## 1576  2020-11-15               North West     75
## 1577  2020-11-16               North West     74
## 1578  2020-11-17               North West     73
## 1579  2020-11-18               North West     71
## 1580  2020-11-19               North West     67
## 1581  2020-11-20               North West     52
## 1582  2020-11-21               North West     68
## 1583  2020-11-22               North West     52
## 1584  2020-11-23               North West     54
## 1585  2020-11-24               North West     64
## 1586  2020-11-25               North West     65
## 1587  2020-11-26               North West     53
## 1588  2020-11-27               North West     51
## 1589  2020-11-28               North West     46
## 1590  2020-11-29               North West     54
## 1591  2020-11-30               North West     48
## 1592  2020-12-01               North West     53
## 1593  2020-12-02               North West     48
## 1594  2020-12-03               North West     46
## 1595  2020-12-04               North West     47
## 1596  2020-12-05               North West     37
## 1597  2020-12-06               North West     43
## 1598  2020-12-07               North West     50
## 1599  2020-12-08               North West     49
## 1600  2020-12-09               North West     48
## 1601  2020-12-10               North West     49
## 1602  2020-12-11               North West     41
## 1603  2020-12-12               North West     48
## 1604  2020-12-13               North West     41
## 1605  2020-12-14               North West     51
## 1606  2020-12-15               North West     34
## 1607  2020-12-16               North West     41
## 1608  2020-12-17               North West     25
## 1609  2020-12-18               North West     47
## 1610  2020-12-19               North West     45
## 1611  2020-12-20               North West     37
## 1612  2020-12-21               North West     51
## 1613  2020-12-22               North West     52
## 1614  2020-12-23               North West     50
## 1615  2020-12-24               North West     58
## 1616  2020-12-25               North West     52
## 1617  2020-12-26               North West     56
## 1618  2020-12-27               North West     50
## 1619  2020-12-28               North West     48
## 1620  2020-12-29               North West     48
## 1621  2020-12-30               North West     49
## 1622  2020-12-31               North West     62
## 1623  2021-01-01               North West     54
## 1624  2021-01-02               North West     55
## 1625  2021-01-03               North West     55
## 1626  2021-01-04               North West     50
## 1627  2021-01-05               North West     55
## 1628  2021-01-06               North West     67
## 1629  2021-01-07               North West     61
## 1630  2021-01-08               North West     63
## 1631  2021-01-09               North West     64
## 1632  2021-01-10               North West     63
## 1633  2021-01-11               North West     76
## 1634  2021-01-12               North West     56
## 1635  2021-01-13               North West     79
## 1636  2021-01-14               North West     86
## 1637  2021-01-15               North West     81
## 1638  2021-01-16               North West     80
## 1639  2021-01-17               North West     78
## 1640  2021-01-18               North West     88
## 1641  2021-01-19               North West     86
## 1642  2021-01-20               North West     78
## 1643  2021-01-21               North West     62
## 1644  2021-01-22               North West     41
## 1645  2021-01-23               North West      8
## 1646  2020-03-01               South East      0
## 1647  2020-03-02               South East      0
## 1648  2020-03-03               South East      1
## 1649  2020-03-04               South East      0
## 1650  2020-03-05               South East      1
## 1651  2020-03-06               South East      0
## 1652  2020-03-07               South East      0
## 1653  2020-03-08               South East      1
## 1654  2020-03-09               South East      1
## 1655  2020-03-10               South East      1
## 1656  2020-03-11               South East      1
## 1657  2020-03-12               South East      0
## 1658  2020-03-13               South East      1
## 1659  2020-03-14               South East      1
## 1660  2020-03-15               South East      5
## 1661  2020-03-16               South East      8
## 1662  2020-03-17               South East      7
## 1663  2020-03-18               South East     10
## 1664  2020-03-19               South East      9
## 1665  2020-03-20               South East     13
## 1666  2020-03-21               South East      7
## 1667  2020-03-22               South East     25
## 1668  2020-03-23               South East     20
## 1669  2020-03-24               South East     22
## 1670  2020-03-25               South East     29
## 1671  2020-03-26               South East     35
## 1672  2020-03-27               South East     36
## 1673  2020-03-28               South East     36
## 1674  2020-03-29               South East     55
## 1675  2020-03-30               South East     58
## 1676  2020-03-31               South East     65
## 1677  2020-04-01               South East     66
## 1678  2020-04-02               South East     55
## 1679  2020-04-03               South East     72
## 1680  2020-04-04               South East     80
## 1681  2020-04-05               South East     82
## 1682  2020-04-06               South East     88
## 1683  2020-04-07               South East    100
## 1684  2020-04-08               South East     83
## 1685  2020-04-09               South East    104
## 1686  2020-04-10               South East     88
## 1687  2020-04-11               South East     88
## 1688  2020-04-12               South East     88
## 1689  2020-04-13               South East     84
## 1690  2020-04-14               South East     65
## 1691  2020-04-15               South East     72
## 1692  2020-04-16               South East     56
## 1693  2020-04-17               South East     86
## 1694  2020-04-18               South East     57
## 1695  2020-04-19               South East     70
## 1696  2020-04-20               South East     87
## 1697  2020-04-21               South East     51
## 1698  2020-04-22               South East     54
## 1699  2020-04-23               South East     57
## 1700  2020-04-24               South East     64
## 1701  2020-04-25               South East     51
## 1702  2020-04-26               South East     51
## 1703  2020-04-27               South East     41
## 1704  2020-04-28               South East     40
## 1705  2020-04-29               South East     47
## 1706  2020-04-30               South East     29
## 1707  2020-05-01               South East     37
## 1708  2020-05-02               South East     36
## 1709  2020-05-03               South East     17
## 1710  2020-05-04               South East     35
## 1711  2020-05-05               South East     29
## 1712  2020-05-06               South East     25
## 1713  2020-05-07               South East     27
## 1714  2020-05-08               South East     26
## 1715  2020-05-09               South East     28
## 1716  2020-05-10               South East     19
## 1717  2020-05-11               South East     25
## 1718  2020-05-12               South East     27
## 1719  2020-05-13               South East     18
## 1720  2020-05-14               South East     32
## 1721  2020-05-15               South East     25
## 1722  2020-05-16               South East     22
## 1723  2020-05-17               South East     18
## 1724  2020-05-18               South East     22
## 1725  2020-05-19               South East     12
## 1726  2020-05-20               South East     22
## 1727  2020-05-21               South East     15
## 1728  2020-05-22               South East     17
## 1729  2020-05-23               South East     21
## 1730  2020-05-24               South East     17
## 1731  2020-05-25               South East     13
## 1732  2020-05-26               South East     19
## 1733  2020-05-27               South East     19
## 1734  2020-05-28               South East     12
## 1735  2020-05-29               South East     22
## 1736  2020-05-30               South East      8
## 1737  2020-05-31               South East     12
## 1738  2020-06-01               South East     11
## 1739  2020-06-02               South East     13
## 1740  2020-06-03               South East     18
## 1741  2020-06-04               South East     11
## 1742  2020-06-05               South East     11
## 1743  2020-06-06               South East     10
## 1744  2020-06-07               South East     12
## 1745  2020-06-08               South East      8
## 1746  2020-06-09               South East     10
## 1747  2020-06-10               South East     11
## 1748  2020-06-11               South East      5
## 1749  2020-06-12               South East      6
## 1750  2020-06-13               South East      7
## 1751  2020-06-14               South East      7
## 1752  2020-06-15               South East      8
## 1753  2020-06-16               South East     14
## 1754  2020-06-17               South East      9
## 1755  2020-06-18               South East      4
## 1756  2020-06-19               South East      7
## 1757  2020-06-20               South East      5
## 1758  2020-06-21               South East      3
## 1759  2020-06-22               South East      2
## 1760  2020-06-23               South East      9
## 1761  2020-06-24               South East      7
## 1762  2020-06-25               South East      5
## 1763  2020-06-26               South East      8
## 1764  2020-06-27               South East      9
## 1765  2020-06-28               South East      6
## 1766  2020-06-29               South East      5
## 1767  2020-06-30               South East      5
## 1768  2020-07-01               South East      2
## 1769  2020-07-02               South East      8
## 1770  2020-07-03               South East      3
## 1771  2020-07-04               South East      6
## 1772  2020-07-05               South East      5
## 1773  2020-07-06               South East      4
## 1774  2020-07-07               South East      6
## 1775  2020-07-08               South East      3
## 1776  2020-07-09               South East      7
## 1777  2020-07-10               South East      3
## 1778  2020-07-11               South East      4
## 1779  2020-07-12               South East      5
## 1780  2020-07-13               South East      5
## 1781  2020-07-14               South East      5
## 1782  2020-07-15               South East      6
## 1783  2020-07-16               South East      3
## 1784  2020-07-17               South East      1
## 1785  2020-07-18               South East      5
## 1786  2020-07-19               South East      2
## 1787  2020-07-20               South East      6
## 1788  2020-07-21               South East      4
## 1789  2020-07-22               South East      2
## 1790  2020-07-23               South East      3
## 1791  2020-07-24               South East      1
## 1792  2020-07-25               South East      1
## 1793  2020-07-26               South East      3
## 1794  2020-07-27               South East      1
## 1795  2020-07-28               South East      3
## 1796  2020-07-29               South East      2
## 1797  2020-07-30               South East      3
## 1798  2020-07-31               South East      1
## 1799  2020-08-01               South East      2
## 1800  2020-08-02               South East      4
## 1801  2020-08-03               South East      0
## 1802  2020-08-04               South East      0
## 1803  2020-08-05               South East      0
## 1804  2020-08-06               South East      2
## 1805  2020-08-07               South East      0
## 1806  2020-08-08               South East      2
## 1807  2020-08-09               South East      0
## 1808  2020-08-10               South East      2
## 1809  2020-08-11               South East      1
## 1810  2020-08-12               South East      1
## 1811  2020-08-13               South East      0
## 1812  2020-08-14               South East      0
## 1813  2020-08-15               South East      2
## 1814  2020-08-16               South East      1
## 1815  2020-08-17               South East      0
## 1816  2020-08-18               South East      2
## 1817  2020-08-19               South East      1
## 1818  2020-08-20               South East      0
## 1819  2020-08-21               South East      0
## 1820  2020-08-22               South East      0
## 1821  2020-08-23               South East      1
## 1822  2020-08-24               South East      0
## 1823  2020-08-25               South East      1
## 1824  2020-08-26               South East      0
## 1825  2020-08-27               South East      1
## 1826  2020-08-28               South East      2
## 1827  2020-08-29               South East      1
## 1828  2020-08-30               South East      0
## 1829  2020-08-31               South East      2
## 1830  2020-09-01               South East      1
## 1831  2020-09-02               South East      1
## 1832  2020-09-03               South East      0
## 1833  2020-09-04               South East      1
## 1834  2020-09-05               South East      0
## 1835  2020-09-06               South East      1
## 1836  2020-09-07               South East      0
## 1837  2020-09-08               South East      0
## 1838  2020-09-09               South East      0
## 1839  2020-09-10               South East      1
## 1840  2020-09-11               South East      1
## 1841  2020-09-12               South East      0
## 1842  2020-09-13               South East      3
## 1843  2020-09-14               South East      1
## 1844  2020-09-15               South East      2
## 1845  2020-09-16               South East      2
## 1846  2020-09-17               South East      3
## 1847  2020-09-18               South East      1
## 1848  2020-09-19               South East      1
## 1849  2020-09-20               South East      0
## 1850  2020-09-21               South East      3
## 1851  2020-09-22               South East      0
## 1852  2020-09-23               South East      2
## 1853  2020-09-24               South East      1
## 1854  2020-09-25               South East      3
## 1855  2020-09-26               South East      2
## 1856  2020-09-27               South East      2
## 1857  2020-09-28               South East      6
## 1858  2020-09-29               South East      3
## 1859  2020-09-30               South East      4
## 1860  2020-10-01               South East      4
## 1861  2020-10-02               South East      2
## 1862  2020-10-03               South East      1
## 1863  2020-10-04               South East      1
## 1864  2020-10-05               South East      2
## 1865  2020-10-06               South East      1
## 1866  2020-10-07               South East      4
## 1867  2020-10-08               South East      1
## 1868  2020-10-09               South East      1
## 1869  2020-10-10               South East      3
## 1870  2020-10-11               South East      3
## 1871  2020-10-12               South East      4
## 1872  2020-10-13               South East      2
## 1873  2020-10-14               South East      2
## 1874  2020-10-15               South East      3
## 1875  2020-10-16               South East      2
## 1876  2020-10-17               South East      3
## 1877  2020-10-18               South East      4
## 1878  2020-10-19               South East      7
## 1879  2020-10-20               South East      8
## 1880  2020-10-21               South East      9
## 1881  2020-10-22               South East      5
## 1882  2020-10-23               South East      7
## 1883  2020-10-24               South East      5
## 1884  2020-10-25               South East      9
## 1885  2020-10-26               South East     13
## 1886  2020-10-27               South East     10
## 1887  2020-10-28               South East     10
## 1888  2020-10-29               South East      7
## 1889  2020-10-30               South East      6
## 1890  2020-10-31               South East     15
## 1891  2020-11-01               South East     18
## 1892  2020-11-02               South East     13
## 1893  2020-11-03               South East     16
## 1894  2020-11-04               South East     10
## 1895  2020-11-05               South East     10
## 1896  2020-11-06               South East     16
## 1897  2020-11-07               South East     17
## 1898  2020-11-08               South East     18
## 1899  2020-11-09               South East     19
## 1900  2020-11-10               South East     20
## 1901  2020-11-11               South East     19
## 1902  2020-11-12               South East     20
## 1903  2020-11-13               South East     12
## 1904  2020-11-14               South East     24
## 1905  2020-11-15               South East     25
## 1906  2020-11-16               South East     22
## 1907  2020-11-17               South East     23
## 1908  2020-11-18               South East     26
## 1909  2020-11-19               South East     21
## 1910  2020-11-20               South East     18
## 1911  2020-11-21               South East     23
## 1912  2020-11-22               South East     30
## 1913  2020-11-23               South East     29
## 1914  2020-11-24               South East     26
## 1915  2020-11-25               South East     42
## 1916  2020-11-26               South East     30
## 1917  2020-11-27               South East     31
## 1918  2020-11-28               South East     24
## 1919  2020-11-29               South East     37
## 1920  2020-11-30               South East     23
## 1921  2020-12-01               South East     29
## 1922  2020-12-02               South East     33
## 1923  2020-12-03               South East     36
## 1924  2020-12-04               South East     41
## 1925  2020-12-05               South East     36
## 1926  2020-12-06               South East     32
## 1927  2020-12-07               South East     25
## 1928  2020-12-08               South East     43
## 1929  2020-12-09               South East     44
## 1930  2020-12-10               South East     38
## 1931  2020-12-11               South East     48
## 1932  2020-12-12               South East     40
## 1933  2020-12-13               South East     41
## 1934  2020-12-14               South East     38
## 1935  2020-12-15               South East     50
## 1936  2020-12-16               South East     44
## 1937  2020-12-17               South East     53
## 1938  2020-12-18               South East     48
## 1939  2020-12-19               South East     42
## 1940  2020-12-20               South East     55
## 1941  2020-12-21               South East     65
## 1942  2020-12-22               South East     58
## 1943  2020-12-23               South East     69
## 1944  2020-12-24               South East     54
## 1945  2020-12-25               South East     68
## 1946  2020-12-26               South East     72
## 1947  2020-12-27               South East     74
## 1948  2020-12-28               South East     81
## 1949  2020-12-29               South East     77
## 1950  2020-12-30               South East     87
## 1951  2020-12-31               South East     88
## 1952  2021-01-01               South East     59
## 1953  2021-01-02               South East     92
## 1954  2021-01-03               South East     75
## 1955  2021-01-04               South East    100
## 1956  2021-01-05               South East    103
## 1957  2021-01-06               South East    116
## 1958  2021-01-07               South East    113
## 1959  2021-01-08               South East    123
## 1960  2021-01-09               South East    110
## 1961  2021-01-10               South East    120
## 1962  2021-01-11               South East    128
## 1963  2021-01-12               South East    165
## 1964  2021-01-13               South East    127
## 1965  2021-01-14               South East    134
## 1966  2021-01-15               South East    123
## 1967  2021-01-16               South East    147
## 1968  2021-01-17               South East    153
## 1969  2021-01-18               South East    143
## 1970  2021-01-19               South East    145
## 1971  2021-01-20               South East    123
## 1972  2021-01-21               South East     98
## 1973  2021-01-22               South East     59
## 1974  2021-01-23               South East     20
## 1975  2020-03-01               South West      0
## 1976  2020-03-02               South West      0
## 1977  2020-03-03               South West      0
## 1978  2020-03-04               South West      0
## 1979  2020-03-05               South West      0
## 1980  2020-03-06               South West      0
## 1981  2020-03-07               South West      0
## 1982  2020-03-08               South West      0
## 1983  2020-03-09               South West      0
## 1984  2020-03-10               South West      0
## 1985  2020-03-11               South West      1
## 1986  2020-03-12               South West      0
## 1987  2020-03-13               South West      0
## 1988  2020-03-14               South West      1
## 1989  2020-03-15               South West      0
## 1990  2020-03-16               South West      0
## 1991  2020-03-17               South West      2
## 1992  2020-03-18               South West      2
## 1993  2020-03-19               South West      4
## 1994  2020-03-20               South West      3
## 1995  2020-03-21               South West      6
## 1996  2020-03-22               South West      7
## 1997  2020-03-23               South West      8
## 1998  2020-03-24               South West      7
## 1999  2020-03-25               South West      9
## 2000  2020-03-26               South West     11
## 2001  2020-03-27               South West     13
## 2002  2020-03-28               South West     21
## 2003  2020-03-29               South West     18
## 2004  2020-03-30               South West     23
## 2005  2020-03-31               South West     23
## 2006  2020-04-01               South West     21
## 2007  2020-04-02               South West     23
## 2008  2020-04-03               South West     30
## 2009  2020-04-04               South West     42
## 2010  2020-04-05               South West     32
## 2011  2020-04-06               South West     34
## 2012  2020-04-07               South West     39
## 2013  2020-04-08               South West     47
## 2014  2020-04-09               South West     24
## 2015  2020-04-10               South West     46
## 2016  2020-04-11               South West     43
## 2017  2020-04-12               South West     23
## 2018  2020-04-13               South West     27
## 2019  2020-04-14               South West     24
## 2020  2020-04-15               South West     32
## 2021  2020-04-16               South West     29
## 2022  2020-04-17               South West     33
## 2023  2020-04-18               South West     25
## 2024  2020-04-19               South West     31
## 2025  2020-04-20               South West     26
## 2026  2020-04-21               South West     26
## 2027  2020-04-22               South West     23
## 2028  2020-04-23               South West     17
## 2029  2020-04-24               South West     19
## 2030  2020-04-25               South West     15
## 2031  2020-04-26               South West     27
## 2032  2020-04-27               South West     13
## 2033  2020-04-28               South West     17
## 2034  2020-04-29               South West     15
## 2035  2020-04-30               South West     26
## 2036  2020-05-01               South West      6
## 2037  2020-05-02               South West      7
## 2038  2020-05-03               South West     10
## 2039  2020-05-04               South West     17
## 2040  2020-05-05               South West     14
## 2041  2020-05-06               South West     19
## 2042  2020-05-07               South West     16
## 2043  2020-05-08               South West      6
## 2044  2020-05-09               South West     11
## 2045  2020-05-10               South West      5
## 2046  2020-05-11               South West      8
## 2047  2020-05-12               South West      7
## 2048  2020-05-13               South West      7
## 2049  2020-05-14               South West      6
## 2050  2020-05-15               South West      4
## 2051  2020-05-16               South West      4
## 2052  2020-05-17               South West      6
## 2053  2020-05-18               South West      4
## 2054  2020-05-19               South West      6
## 2055  2020-05-20               South West      1
## 2056  2020-05-21               South West      9
## 2057  2020-05-22               South West      7
## 2058  2020-05-23               South West      6
## 2059  2020-05-24               South West      3
## 2060  2020-05-25               South West      8
## 2061  2020-05-26               South West     11
## 2062  2020-05-27               South West      5
## 2063  2020-05-28               South West     10
## 2064  2020-05-29               South West      7
## 2065  2020-05-30               South West      3
## 2066  2020-05-31               South West      2
## 2067  2020-06-01               South West      7
## 2068  2020-06-02               South West      2
## 2069  2020-06-03               South West      7
## 2070  2020-06-04               South West      2
## 2071  2020-06-05               South West      2
## 2072  2020-06-06               South West      1
## 2073  2020-06-07               South West      3
## 2074  2020-06-08               South West      3
## 2075  2020-06-09               South West      0
## 2076  2020-06-10               South West      1
## 2077  2020-06-11               South West      2
## 2078  2020-06-12               South West      2
## 2079  2020-06-13               South West      2
## 2080  2020-06-14               South West      0
## 2081  2020-06-15               South West      2
## 2082  2020-06-16               South West      2
## 2083  2020-06-17               South West      0
## 2084  2020-06-18               South West      0
## 2085  2020-06-19               South West      0
## 2086  2020-06-20               South West      2
## 2087  2020-06-21               South West      0
## 2088  2020-06-22               South West      1
## 2089  2020-06-23               South West      1
## 2090  2020-06-24               South West      1
## 2091  2020-06-25               South West      0
## 2092  2020-06-26               South West      3
## 2093  2020-06-27               South West      0
## 2094  2020-06-28               South West      0
## 2095  2020-06-29               South West      1
## 2096  2020-06-30               South West      0
## 2097  2020-07-01               South West      0
## 2098  2020-07-02               South West      0
## 2099  2020-07-03               South West      0
## 2100  2020-07-04               South West      0
## 2101  2020-07-05               South West      1
## 2102  2020-07-06               South West      0
## 2103  2020-07-07               South West      0
## 2104  2020-07-08               South West      2
## 2105  2020-07-09               South West      0
## 2106  2020-07-10               South West      1
## 2107  2020-07-11               South West      0
## 2108  2020-07-12               South West      0
## 2109  2020-07-13               South West      1
## 2110  2020-07-14               South West      0
## 2111  2020-07-15               South West      0
## 2112  2020-07-16               South West      0
## 2113  2020-07-17               South West      1
## 2114  2020-07-18               South West      0
## 2115  2020-07-19               South West      0
## 2116  2020-07-20               South West      0
## 2117  2020-07-21               South West      0
## 2118  2020-07-22               South West      0
## 2119  2020-07-23               South West      0
## 2120  2020-07-24               South West      0
## 2121  2020-07-25               South West      0
## 2122  2020-07-26               South West      0
## 2123  2020-07-27               South West      0
## 2124  2020-07-28               South West      0
## 2125  2020-07-29               South West      0
## 2126  2020-07-30               South West      1
## 2127  2020-07-31               South West      0
## 2128  2020-08-01               South West      0
## 2129  2020-08-02               South West      0
## 2130  2020-08-03               South West      0
## 2131  2020-08-04               South West      0
## 2132  2020-08-05               South West      0
## 2133  2020-08-06               South West      0
## 2134  2020-08-07               South West      0
## 2135  2020-08-08               South West      0
## 2136  2020-08-09               South West      0
## 2137  2020-08-10               South West      0
## 2138  2020-08-11               South West      0
## 2139  2020-08-12               South West      0
## 2140  2020-08-13               South West      0
## 2141  2020-08-14               South West      1
## 2142  2020-08-15               South West      0
## 2143  2020-08-16               South West      0
## 2144  2020-08-17               South West      2
## 2145  2020-08-18               South West      0
## 2146  2020-08-19               South West      0
## 2147  2020-08-20               South West      0
## 2148  2020-08-21               South West      0
## 2149  2020-08-22               South West      0
## 2150  2020-08-23               South West      0
## 2151  2020-08-24               South West      0
## 2152  2020-08-25               South West      1
## 2153  2020-08-26               South West      0
## 2154  2020-08-27               South West      1
## 2155  2020-08-28               South West      0
## 2156  2020-08-29               South West      0
## 2157  2020-08-30               South West      0
## 2158  2020-08-31               South West      0
## 2159  2020-09-01               South West      0
## 2160  2020-09-02               South West      0
## 2161  2020-09-03               South West      0
## 2162  2020-09-04               South West      0
## 2163  2020-09-05               South West      0
## 2164  2020-09-06               South West      0
## 2165  2020-09-07               South West      0
## 2166  2020-09-08               South West      1
## 2167  2020-09-09               South West      0
## 2168  2020-09-10               South West      0
## 2169  2020-09-11               South West      0
## 2170  2020-09-12               South West      0
## 2171  2020-09-13               South West      1
## 2172  2020-09-14               South West      0
## 2173  2020-09-15               South West      0
## 2174  2020-09-16               South West      0
## 2175  2020-09-17               South West      1
## 2176  2020-09-18               South West      0
## 2177  2020-09-19               South West      0
## 2178  2020-09-20               South West      1
## 2179  2020-09-21               South West      0
## 2180  2020-09-22               South West      0
## 2181  2020-09-23               South West      0
## 2182  2020-09-24               South West      1
## 2183  2020-09-25               South West      0
## 2184  2020-09-26               South West      0
## 2185  2020-09-27               South West      0
## 2186  2020-09-28               South West      0
## 2187  2020-09-29               South West      0
## 2188  2020-09-30               South West      0
## 2189  2020-10-01               South West      0
## 2190  2020-10-02               South West      1
## 2191  2020-10-03               South West      0
## 2192  2020-10-04               South West      0
## 2193  2020-10-05               South West      0
## 2194  2020-10-06               South West      1
## 2195  2020-10-07               South West      0
## 2196  2020-10-08               South West      1
## 2197  2020-10-09               South West      1
## 2198  2020-10-10               South West      0
## 2199  2020-10-11               South West      4
## 2200  2020-10-12               South West      2
## 2201  2020-10-13               South West      0
## 2202  2020-10-14               South West      3
## 2203  2020-10-15               South West      1
## 2204  2020-10-16               South West      2
## 2205  2020-10-17               South West      8
## 2206  2020-10-18               South West      2
## 2207  2020-10-19               South West      2
## 2208  2020-10-20               South West      3
## 2209  2020-10-21               South West      6
## 2210  2020-10-22               South West      6
## 2211  2020-10-23               South West      5
## 2212  2020-10-24               South West      5
## 2213  2020-10-25               South West      5
## 2214  2020-10-26               South West      7
## 2215  2020-10-27               South West      6
## 2216  2020-10-28               South West      8
## 2217  2020-10-29               South West     11
## 2218  2020-10-30               South West      8
## 2219  2020-10-31               South West      4
## 2220  2020-11-01               South West      5
## 2221  2020-11-02               South West     11
## 2222  2020-11-03               South West      7
## 2223  2020-11-04               South West      8
## 2224  2020-11-05               South West      5
## 2225  2020-11-06               South West     11
## 2226  2020-11-07               South West     10
## 2227  2020-11-08               South West     10
## 2228  2020-11-09               South West     12
## 2229  2020-11-10               South West      6
## 2230  2020-11-11               South West     13
## 2231  2020-11-12               South West     17
## 2232  2020-11-13               South West      9
## 2233  2020-11-14               South West      8
## 2234  2020-11-15               South West     16
## 2235  2020-11-16               South West     18
## 2236  2020-11-17               South West     17
## 2237  2020-11-18               South West     26
## 2238  2020-11-19               South West     15
## 2239  2020-11-20               South West     25
## 2240  2020-11-21               South West     25
## 2241  2020-11-22               South West     23
## 2242  2020-11-23               South West     14
## 2243  2020-11-24               South West     20
## 2244  2020-11-25               South West     25
## 2245  2020-11-26               South West     16
## 2246  2020-11-27               South West     21
## 2247  2020-11-28               South West     35
## 2248  2020-11-29               South West     15
## 2249  2020-11-30               South West     21
## 2250  2020-12-01               South West     19
## 2251  2020-12-02               South West     15
## 2252  2020-12-03               South West     14
## 2253  2020-12-04               South West     20
## 2254  2020-12-05               South West     17
## 2255  2020-12-06               South West     13
## 2256  2020-12-07               South West     15
## 2257  2020-12-08               South West     19
## 2258  2020-12-09               South West     21
## 2259  2020-12-10               South West     20
## 2260  2020-12-11               South West     20
## 2261  2020-12-12               South West     15
## 2262  2020-12-13               South West     19
## 2263  2020-12-14               South West     20
## 2264  2020-12-15               South West     19
## 2265  2020-12-16               South West      9
## 2266  2020-12-17               South West     25
## 2267  2020-12-18               South West     10
## 2268  2020-12-19               South West     22
## 2269  2020-12-20               South West     19
## 2270  2020-12-21               South West     21
## 2271  2020-12-22               South West     10
## 2272  2020-12-23               South West     16
## 2273  2020-12-24               South West     18
## 2274  2020-12-25               South West     19
## 2275  2020-12-26               South West     24
## 2276  2020-12-27               South West     24
## 2277  2020-12-28               South West     20
## 2278  2020-12-29               South West     20
## 2279  2020-12-30               South West     14
## 2280  2020-12-31               South West     26
## 2281  2021-01-01               South West     28
## 2282  2021-01-02               South West     22
## 2283  2021-01-03               South West     24
## 2284  2021-01-04               South West     30
## 2285  2021-01-05               South West     30
## 2286  2021-01-06               South West     24
## 2287  2021-01-07               South West     29
## 2288  2021-01-08               South West     33
## 2289  2021-01-09               South West     26
## 2290  2021-01-10               South West     31
## 2291  2021-01-11               South West     36
## 2292  2021-01-12               South West     48
## 2293  2021-01-13               South West     40
## 2294  2021-01-14               South West     32
## 2295  2021-01-15               South West     43
## 2296  2021-01-16               South West     54
## 2297  2021-01-17               South West     31
## 2298  2021-01-18               South West     42
## 2299  2021-01-19               South West     40
## 2300  2021-01-20               South West     55
## 2301  2021-01-21               South West     43
## 2302  2021-01-22               South West     31
## 2303  2021-01-23               South West      4

1.5 Completion date

We extract the completion date from the NHS Pathways file timestamp:


database_date <- attr(x, "timestamp")
database_date
## [1] "2021-01-24"

The completion date of the NHS Pathways data is Sunday 24 Jan 2021.

1.6 Auxiliary functions

These are functions which will be used further in the analyses.

Function to estimate the generalised R-squared as the proportion of deviance explained by a given model:


## Function to calculate R2 for Poisson model
## not adjusted for model complexity but all models have the same DF here

Rsq <- function(x) {
  1 - (x$deviance / x$null.deviance)
}

Function to extract growth rates per region as well as halving times, and the associated 95% confidence intervals:


## function to extract the coefficients, find the level of the intercept,
## reconstruct the values of r, get confidence intervals

get_r <- function(model) {
  ##  extract coefficients and conf int
  out <- data.frame(r = coef(model))  %>%
    rownames_to_column("var") %>% 
    cbind(confint(model)) %>%
    filter(!grepl("day_of_week", var)) %>% 
    filter(grepl("day", var)) %>%
    rename(lower_95 = "2.5 %",
           upper_95 = "97.5 %") %>%
    mutate(var = sub("day:", "", var))
  
  ## reconstruct values: intercept + region-coefficient
  for (i in 2:nrow(out)) {
    out[i, -1] <- out[1, -1] + out[i, -1]
  }
  
  ## find the name of the intercept, restore regions names
  out <- out %>%
    mutate(nhs_region = model$xlevels$nhs_region) %>%
    select(nhs_region, everything(), -var)
  
  ## find halving times
  halving <- log(0.5) / out[,-1] %>%
    rename(halving_t = r,
           halving_t_lower_95 = lower_95,
           halving_t_upper_95 = upper_95)
  
  ## set halving times with exclusion intervals to NA
  no_halving <- out$lower_95 < 0 & out$upper_95 > 0
  halving[no_halving, ] <- NA_real_
  
  ## return all data
  cbind(out, halving)
  
}

Functions used in the correlation analysis between NHS Pathways reports and deaths:

## Function to calculate Pearson's correlation between deaths and lagged
## reports. Note that `pearson` can be replaced with `spearman` for rank
## correlation.

getcor <- function(x, ndx) {
  return(cor(x$deaths[ndx],
             x$note_lag[ndx],
             use = "complete.obs",
             method = "pearson"))
}

## Catch if sample size throws an error
getcor2 <- possibly(getcor, otherwise = NA)

getboot <- function(x) {
  result <- boot::boot.ci(boot::boot(x, getcor2, R = 1000), 
                           type = "bca")
  return(data.frame(n = sum(!is.na(x$note_lag) & !is.na(x$deaths)),
                    r = result$t0,
                    r_low = result$bca[4],
                    r_hi = result$bca[5]))
}

Function to classify the day of the week into weekend, Monday, and the rest:


## Fn to add day of week
day_of_week <- function(df) {
  df %>% 
    dplyr::mutate(day_of_week = lubridate::wday(date, label = TRUE)) %>% 
    dplyr::mutate(day_of_week = dplyr::case_when(
      day_of_week %in% c("Sat", "Sun") ~ "weekend",
      day_of_week %in% c("Mon") ~ "monday",
      !(day_of_week %in% c("Sat", "Sun", "Mon")) ~ "rest_of_week"
    ) %>% 
      factor(levels = c("rest_of_week", "monday", "weekend")))
}

Custom color palettes, color scales, and vectors of colors:


pal <- c("#006212",
         "#ae3cab",
         "#00db90",
         "#960c00",
         "#55aaff",
         "#ff7e78",
         "#00388d")

age.pal <- viridis::viridis(3,begin = 0.1, end = 0.7)

3 Comparison with deaths time series

3.1 Outline

We want to explore the correlation between NHS Pathways reports and deaths, and assess the potential for reports to be used as an early warning system for disease resurgence.

Death data are publically available. We truncate the time series to avoid bias from reporting delay - we assume a conservative delay of three weeks.

3.2 Lagged correlation

We calculate Pearson’s correlation coefficient between deaths and NHS Pathways notifications using different lags. Confidence intervals are obtained using bootstrap. Note that results were also confirmed using Spearman’s rank correlation.

First we join the NHS Pathways and death data, and aggregate over all England:

## truncate death data for reporting delay
trunc_date <- max(dth$date_report) - delay_max

dth_trunc <- dth %>%
  rename(date = date_report) %>%
  filter(date <= trunc_date) 

## join with notification data
all_data <- x %>% 
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>%
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = T)) %>%
  ungroup %>%
  inner_join(dth_trunc,
             by = c("date","nhs_region"))

all_tot <- all_data %>%
  group_by(date) %>%
  summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = TRUE),
            deaths = sum(deaths, na.rm = TRUE)) 

We calculate correlation with lagged NHS Pathways reports from 0 to 30 days behind deaths:


## Calculate all correlations + bootstrap CIs
lag_cor <- data.frame()
for (i in 0:30) {
  
  ## lag reports
  summary <- all_tot %>% 
    mutate(note_lag = lag(count, i)) %>%
    ## calculate rank correlation and bootstrap CI
    getboot(.) %>%
    mutate(lag = i)

  lag_cor <- bind_rows(lag_cor, summary)
}

cor_vs_lag <- ggplot(lag_cor, aes(lag, r)) +
  theme_bw() +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = r_low, ymax = r_hi), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, lty = "longdash") +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  labs(x = "Lag between NHS pathways and death data (days)",
       y = "Pearson's correlation") +
  large_txt
cor_vs_lag


l_opt <- which.max(lag_cor$r)

This analysis suggests that the best lag is 16 days. We then compare and plot the number of deaths reported against the number of NHS Pathways reports lagged by 16 days.


all_tot <- all_tot %>%
  rename(date_death = date) %>%
  mutate(note_lag = lag(count, lag_cor$lag[l_opt]),
         note_lag_c = (note_lag - mean(note_lag, na.rm = T)),
         date_note = lag(date_death,16))

lag_mod <- glm(deaths ~ note_lag, data = all_tot, family = "quasipoisson")

summary(lag_mod)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = deaths ~ note_lag, family = "quasipoisson", data = all_tot)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -15.024  -12.512   -4.841    8.072   24.459  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 4.753e+00  6.461e-02   73.56   <2e-16 ***
## note_lag    1.499e-05  9.758e-07   15.36   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 121.5898)
## 
##     Null deviance: 54546  on 274  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 34048  on 273  degrees of freedom
##   (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: NA
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5

exp(coefficients(lag_mod))
## (Intercept)    note_lag 
##  115.924753    1.000015
exp(confint(lag_mod))
##                  2.5 %     97.5 %
## (Intercept) 101.897847 131.281862
## note_lag      1.000013   1.000017

Rsq(lag_mod)
## [1] 0.3757986

mod_fit <- as.data.frame(predict(lag_mod, type = "link", se.fit = TRUE)[1:2])

all_tot_pred <- 
  all_tot %>%
  filter(!is.na(note_lag)) %>%
  mutate(pred = mod_fit$fit,
         pred.se = mod_fit$se.fit,
         low = exp(pred - 1.96*pred.se),
         hi = exp(pred + 1.96*pred.se))


glm_fit <- all_tot_pred %>% 
    filter(!is.na(note_lag)) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = note_lag, y = deaths)) +
  geom_point() + 
  geom_line(aes(y = exp(pred))) + 
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = low, ymax = hi), alpha = 0.3, col = "grey") +
  theme_bw() +
  labs(y = "Daily number of\ndeaths reported",
       x = "Daily number of NHS Pathways reports") +
  large_txt

glm_fit

4 Supplementary figures

4.1 Serial interval distribution

This is a comparison of gamma versus lognormal distribution for the serial interval used to convert r to R in our analysis. Both distributions are parameterised with mean 4.7 and standard deviation 2.9.

SI_param <- epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale, w = 0.5)

SI_distribution2 <- distcrete::distcrete("lnorm", interval = 1,
                                        meanlog = log(4.7),
                                        sdlog = log(2.9), w = 0.5)

SI_dist1 <- data.frame(x = SI_distribution$r(1e5)) 
SI_dist1 <- count(SI_dist1, x) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_col(aes(x = x, y = n)) +
    labs(x = "Serial interval (days)", y = "Frequency") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 30, 5)) +
    theme_bw()

SI_dist2 <- data.frame(x = SI_distribution2$r(1e5)) 
SI_dist2 <- count(SI_dist2, x) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_col(aes(x = x, y = n)) +
    labs(x = "Serial interval (days)", y = "Frequency") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 200, 20), limits = c(0, 200)) +
    theme_bw()


ggpubr::ggarrange(SI_dist1,
                  SI_dist2,
                  nrow = 1,
                  labels = "AUTO") 

4.2 Sensitivity analysis - 7 or 21 days moving window

We reproduce the window analysis with either a 7 or 21 days window for sensitivity purposes.

First with the 7 days window:

## set moving time window (1/2/3 weeks)
w <- 7

# create empty df
r_all_sliding_7days <- NULL

## make data for model
x_model_all_moving <- x %>%
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>% 
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(n = sum(count)) 

unique_dates <- unique(x_model_all_moving$date)

for (i in 1:(length(unique_dates) - w)) {
  
  date_i <- unique_dates[i]
  
  date_i_max <- date_i + w
  
  model_data <- x_model_all_moving %>%
    filter(date >= date_i & date < date_i_max) %>%
    mutate(day = as.integer(date - date_i)) %>% 
    day_of_week()
  
  
  mod <- glm(n ~ day * nhs_region + day_of_week,
             data = model_data,
             family = 'quasipoisson')
  
  # get growth rate
  r <- get_r(mod)
  r$w_min <- date_i
  r$w_max <- date_i_max
  
  # combine all estimates
  r_all_sliding_7days <- bind_rows(r_all_sliding_7days, r)
  
}

#serial interval distribution
SI_param = epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale,
                                        w = 0.5)

#convert growth rates r to R0
r_all_sliding_7days <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(R = epitrix::r2R0(r, SI_distribution),
         R_lower_95 = epitrix::r2R0(lower_95, SI_distribution),
         R_upper_95 = epitrix::r2R0(upper_95, SI_distribution))
# plot
plot_growth <-
  r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = r)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = "",override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated daily growth rate (r)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)
plot_R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = R)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = R_lower_95, ymax = R_upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)

R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(lower_95 = R_lower_95, 
         upper_95 = R_upper_95,
         value = R,
         measure = "R",
         reference = 1)

r_R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(measure = "r",
         value = r,
         reference = 0) %>%
  bind_rows(R)

r_R_7 <- r_R %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = value)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = reference), linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0,0, "cm"),
        strip.background = element_blank(),
        strip.placement = "outside"
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal) +
  facet_grid(rows = vars(measure),
             scales = "free_y",
             switch = "y",
             labeller = as_labeller(c(r = "Daily growth rate (r)",
                                      R = "Effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)")))

Then with the 21 days window:

## set moving time window (1/2/3 weeks)
w <- 21

# create empty df
r_all_sliding_21days <- NULL

## make data for model
x_model_all_moving <- x %>%
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>% 
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(n = sum(count)) 

unique_dates <- unique(x_model_all_moving$date)

for (i in 1:(length(unique_dates) - w)) {
  
  date_i <- unique_dates[i]
  
  date_i_max <- date_i + w
  
  model_data <- x_model_all_moving %>%
    filter(date >= date_i & date < date_i_max) %>%
    mutate(day = as.integer(date - date_i)) %>% 
    day_of_week()
  
  
  mod <- glm(n ~ day * nhs_region + day_of_week,
             data = model_data,
             family = 'quasipoisson')
  
  # get growth rate
  r <- get_r(mod)
  r$w_min <- date_i
  r$w_max <- date_i_max
  
  # combine all estimates
  r_all_sliding_21days <- bind_rows(r_all_sliding_21days, r)
  
}

#serial interval distribution
SI_param = epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale,
                                        w = 0.5)

#convert growth rates r to R0
r_all_sliding_21days <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(R = epitrix::r2R0(r, SI_distribution),
         R_lower_95 = epitrix::r2R0(lower_95, SI_distribution),
         R_upper_95 = epitrix::r2R0(upper_95, SI_distribution))
# plot
plot_growth <-
  r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = r)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = "",override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated daily growth rate (r)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)
# plot
plot_R <-
  r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = R)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = R_lower_95, ymax = R_upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)

R <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(lower_95 = R_lower_95, 
         upper_95 = R_upper_95,
         value = R,
         measure = "R",
         reference = 1)

r_R <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(measure = "r",
         value = r,
         reference = 0) %>%
  bind_rows(R)

r_R_21 <- r_R %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = value)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = reference), linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0,0, "cm"),
        strip.background = element_blank(),
        strip.placement = "outside"
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal) +
  facet_grid(rows = vars(measure),
             scales = "free_y",
             switch = "y",
             labeller = as_labeller(c(r = "Daily growth rate (r)",
                                      R = "Effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)")))

And we combine both outputs into a single plot:


ggpubr::ggarrange(r_R_7,
                  r_R_21,
                  nrow = 2,
                  labels = "AUTO",
                  common.legend = TRUE,
                  legend = "bottom") 

4.3 Correlation between NHS Pathways reports and deaths by NHS region


lag_cor_reg <- data.frame()

for (i in 0:30) {

  summary <-
    all_data %>%
    group_by(nhs_region) %>%
    mutate(note_lag = lag(count, i)) %>%
    ## calculate rank correlation and bootstrap CI for each region
    group_modify(~getboot(.x)) %>%
    mutate(lag = i)
  
  lag_cor_reg <- bind_rows(lag_cor_reg, summary)
}

cor_vs_lag_reg <- 
lag_cor_reg %>%
ggplot(aes(lag, r, col = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, lty = "longdash") +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = r_low, ymax = r_hi, col = NULL, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  facet_wrap(~nhs_region) +
  scale_color_manual(values = pal) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = pal, guide = F) +  
  theme_bw() +
  labs(x = "Lag between NHS pathways and death data (days)", y = "Pearson's correlation", col = "NHS region") +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(override.aes = list(fill = NA)))

cor_vs_lag_reg

5 Export data

We save the tables created during our analysis:


if (!dir.exists("excel_tables")) {
  dir.create("excel_tables")
}


## list all tables, and loop over export
tables_to_export <- c("r_all_sliding", "lag_cor")

for (e in tables_to_export) {
  rio::export(get(e),
              file.path("excel_tables",
                        paste0(e, ".xlsx")))
}

## also export result from regression on lagged data 
rio::export(lag_mod, file.path("excel_tables", "lag_mod.rds"))

6 System information

6.1 Outline

The following information documents the system on which the document was compiled.

6.2 System

This provides information on the operating system.

Sys.info()
##                                                                                              sysname 
##                                                                                             "Darwin" 
##                                                                                              release 
##                                                                                             "19.6.0" 
##                                                                                              version 
## "Darwin Kernel Version 19.6.0: Thu Oct 29 22:56:45 PDT 2020; root:xnu-6153.141.2.2~1/RELEASE_X86_64" 
##                                                                                             nodename 
##                                                                            "Mac-1611571378405.local" 
##                                                                                              machine 
##                                                                                             "x86_64" 
##                                                                                                login 
##                                                                                               "root" 
##                                                                                                 user 
##                                                                                             "runner" 
##                                                                                       effective_user 
##                                                                                             "runner"

6.3 R environment

This provides information on the version of R used:

R.version
##                _                           
## platform       x86_64-apple-darwin17.0     
## arch           x86_64                      
## os             darwin17.0                  
## system         x86_64, darwin17.0          
## status                                     
## major          4                           
## minor          0.3                         
## year           2020                        
## month          10                          
## day            10                          
## svn rev        79318                       
## language       R                           
## version.string R version 4.0.3 (2020-10-10)
## nickname       Bunny-Wunnies Freak Out

6.4 R packages

This provides information on the packages used:

sessionInfo()
## R version 4.0.3 (2020-10-10)
## Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin17.0 (64-bit)
## Running under: macOS Catalina 10.15.7
## 
## Matrix products: default
## BLAS:   /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRblas.dylib
## LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib
## 
## locale:
## [1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8
## 
## attached base packages:
## [1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     
## 
## other attached packages:
##  [1] ggnewscale_0.4.5     ggpubr_0.4.0         lubridate_1.7.9.2   
##  [4] chngpt_2020.10-12    cyphr_1.1.0          DT_0.17             
##  [7] kableExtra_1.3.1     janitor_2.1.0        remotes_2.2.0       
## [10] projections_0.5.2    earlyR_0.0.5         epitrix_0.2.2       
## [13] distcrete_1.0.3      incidence_1.7.3      rio_0.5.16          
## [16] reshape2_1.4.4       rvest_0.3.6          xml2_1.3.2          
## [19] linelist_0.0.40.9000 forcats_0.5.0        stringr_1.4.0       
## [22] dplyr_1.0.3          purrr_0.3.4          readr_1.4.0         
## [25] tidyr_1.1.2          tibble_3.0.5         ggplot2_3.3.3       
## [28] tidyverse_1.3.0      here_1.0.1           reportfactory_0.0.5 
## 
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
##  [1] minqa_1.2.4       colorspace_2.0-0  selectr_0.4-2     ggsignif_0.6.0   
##  [5] ellipsis_0.3.1    rprojroot_2.0.2   snakecase_0.11.0  fs_1.5.0         
##  [9] rstudioapi_0.13   farver_2.0.3      fansi_0.4.2       splines_4.0.3    
## [13] knitr_1.30        jsonlite_1.7.2    nloptr_1.2.2.2    broom_0.7.3      
## [17] dbplyr_2.0.0      compiler_4.0.3    httr_1.4.2        backports_1.2.1  
## [21] assertthat_0.2.1  Matrix_1.2-18     cli_2.2.0         htmltools_0.5.1.1
## [25] tools_4.0.3       gtable_0.3.0      glue_1.4.2        Rcpp_1.0.6       
## [29] carData_3.0-4     cellranger_1.1.0  vctrs_0.3.6       nlme_3.1-149     
## [33] matchmaker_0.1.1  crosstalk_1.1.1   xfun_0.20         ps_1.5.0         
## [37] openxlsx_4.2.3    lme4_1.1-26       lifecycle_0.2.0   statmod_1.4.35   
## [41] rstatix_0.6.0     MASS_7.3-53       scales_1.1.1      hms_1.0.0        
## [45] parallel_4.0.3    sodium_1.1        yaml_2.2.1        curl_4.3         
## [49] gridExtra_2.3     stringi_1.5.3     kyotil_2020.10-12 boot_1.3-25      
## [53] zip_2.1.1         rlang_0.4.10      pkgconfig_2.0.3   evaluate_0.14    
## [57] lattice_0.20-41   labeling_0.4.2    htmlwidgets_1.5.3 cowplot_1.1.1    
## [61] tidyselect_1.1.0  plyr_1.8.6        magrittr_2.0.1    R6_2.5.0         
## [65] generics_0.1.0    DBI_1.1.1         pillar_1.4.7      haven_2.3.1      
## [69] foreign_0.8-80    withr_2.4.0       mgcv_1.8-33       survival_3.2-7   
## [73] abind_1.4-5       modelr_0.1.8      crayon_1.3.4      car_3.0-10       
## [77] utf8_1.1.4        rmarkdown_2.6     viridis_0.5.1     grid_4.0.3       
## [81] readxl_1.3.1      data.table_1.13.6 reprex_0.3.0      digest_0.6.27    
## [85] webshot_0.5.2     munsell_0.5.0     viridisLite_0.3.0